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Home Capital Group Valuation

Is HCG undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of HCG when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: HCG (CA$44.26) is trading below our estimate of fair value (CA$84.14)

Significantly Below Fair Value: HCG is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for HCG?

Key metric: As HCG is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for HCG. This is calculated by dividing HCG's market cap by their current earnings.
What is HCG's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio	9.7x
Earnings	CA$174.16m
Market Cap	CA$1.69b

HCG key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	n/a
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	n/a
PEG Ratio	n/a

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does HCG's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for HCG vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	11.4x
FN First National Financial	14.8x	15.9%	CA$2.7b
MKP MCAN Mortgage	8.4x	-2.8%	CA$753.9m
TF Timbercreek Financial	11x	1.5%	CA$644.2m
AI Atrium Mortgage Investment	11.3x	7.1%	CA$530.5m
HCG Home Capital Group	9.7x	n/a	CA$1.7b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: HCG is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.7x) compared to the peer average (9.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does HCG's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the North American Diversified Financial Industry?

3 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap

3 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: HCG is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.7x) compared to the North American Diversified Financial industry average (12.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is HCG's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

HCG PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	9.7x
Fair PE Ratio	n/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate HCG's Price-To-Earnings Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Insufficient data to show price forecast.

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