First National Financial Corporation

TSX:FN Stock Report

Market Cap: CA$2.3b

First National Financial Valuation

Is FN undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of FN when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: FN (CA$38.93) is trading below our estimate of fair value (CA$79.48)

Significantly Below Fair Value: FN is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for FN?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

FN key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenuen/a
Enterprise Value/EBITDAn/a
PEG Ratio3.7x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does FN's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for FN vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average10.6x
MKP MCAN Mortgage
8.5x6.2%CA$688.5m
TF Timbercreek Financial
10.9x1.2%CA$669.1m
AI Atrium Mortgage Investment
10.8x7.5%CA$502.3m
FC Firm Capital Mortgage Investment
12.4xn/aCA$420.6m
FN First National Financial
10.2x2.8%CA$2.3b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: FN is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.2x) compared to the peer average (10.6x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does FN's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the North American Diversified Financial Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a78.4%
n/an/an/a
No. of CompaniesPE048121620

Fetching data

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a78.4%
n/an/an/a
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: FN is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.2x) compared to the North American Diversified Financial industry average (14.5x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is FN's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

FN PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio10.2x
Fair PE Ratio11.3x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: FN is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.3x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst FN forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentCA$38.93
CA$41.20
+5.8%
4.2%CA$44.00CA$39.00n/a5
Sep ’25CA$37.35
CA$41.20
+10.3%
4.2%CA$44.00CA$39.00n/a5
Aug ’25CA$36.28
CA$41.17
+13.5%
3.8%CA$44.00CA$39.00n/a6
Jul ’25CA$35.59
CA$40.67
+14.3%
2.3%CA$42.00CA$39.00n/a6
Jun ’25CA$36.99
CA$40.67
+9.9%
2.3%CA$42.00CA$39.00n/a6
May ’25CA$35.68
CA$41.00
+14.9%
3.7%CA$44.00CA$39.00n/a6
Apr ’25CA$37.56
CA$42.33
+12.7%
4.2%CA$45.00CA$40.00n/a6
Mar ’25CA$40.26
CA$42.33
+5.1%
4.2%CA$45.00CA$40.00n/a6
Feb ’25CA$40.90
CA$42.00
+2.7%
5.1%CA$45.00CA$39.00n/a6
Jan ’25CA$38.38
CA$41.67
+8.6%
4.5%CA$44.00CA$39.00n/a6
Dec ’24CA$37.85
CA$41.67
+10.1%
4.5%CA$44.00CA$39.00n/a6
Nov ’24CA$37.55
CA$41.83
+11.4%
4.5%CA$44.00CA$39.00n/a6
Oct ’24CA$35.65
CA$42.83
+20.1%
1.6%CA$44.00CA$42.00CA$39.776
Sep ’24CA$37.95
CA$42.83
+12.9%
1.6%CA$44.00CA$42.00CA$37.356
Aug ’24CA$39.00
CA$40.33
+3.4%
4.2%CA$44.00CA$39.00CA$36.286
Jul ’24CA$37.97
CA$39.50
+4.0%
1.3%CA$40.00CA$39.00CA$35.596
Jun ’24CA$38.02
CA$39.50
+3.9%
1.3%CA$40.00CA$39.00CA$36.996
May ’24CA$38.94
CA$39.33
+1.0%
1.9%CA$40.00CA$38.00CA$35.686
Apr ’24CA$38.12
CA$38.17
+0.1%
3.8%CA$40.00CA$36.00CA$37.566
Mar ’24CA$39.97
CA$37.67
-5.8%
5.0%CA$40.00CA$35.00CA$40.266
Feb ’24CA$37.67
CA$36.00
-4.4%
7.2%CA$40.00CA$33.00CA$40.906
Jan ’24CA$36.42
CA$35.83
-1.6%
6.7%CA$40.00CA$33.00CA$38.386
Dec ’23CA$35.98
CA$35.83
-0.4%
6.7%CA$40.00CA$33.00CA$37.856
Nov ’23CA$34.27
CA$35.83
+4.6%
6.7%CA$40.00CA$33.00CA$37.556
Oct ’23CA$36.01
CA$37.00
+2.7%
4.4%CA$40.00CA$35.00CA$35.656

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.


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