First National Financial Corporation

TSX:FN Stock Report

Market Cap: CA$2.6b

First National Financial Valuation

Is FN undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of FN when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: FN (CA$44.04) is trading below our estimate of fair value (CA$71.78)

Significantly Below Fair Value: FN is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for FN?

Key metric: As FN is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for FN. This is calculated by dividing FN's market cap by their current earnings.
What is FN's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio14.6x
EarningsCA$180.66m
Market CapCA$2.62b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does FN's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for FN vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average10.6x
MKP MCAN Mortgage
8.3x-2.8%CA$757.7m
AI Atrium Mortgage Investment
11.2x7.1%CA$528.6m
TF Timbercreek Financial
10.8x1.5%CA$639.2m
FC Firm Capital Mortgage Investment
12.3xn/aCA$421.7m
FN First National Financial
14.6x15.9%CA$2.6b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: FN is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.6x) compared to the peer average (10.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does FN's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the North American Diversified Financial Industry?

4 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
FN 14.6xIndustry Avg. 14.7xNo. of Companies16PE01224364860+
4 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: FN is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.6x) compared to the North American Diversified Financial industry average (14.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is FN's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

FN PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio14.6x
Fair PE Ratio13.9x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: FN is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.9x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst FN forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentCA$44.04
CA$43.40
-1.5%
4.0%CA$46.00CA$41.00n/a5
Nov ’25CA$41.29
CA$43.40
+5.1%
4.0%CA$46.00CA$41.00n/a5
Oct ’25CA$39.77
CA$41.20
+3.6%
4.2%CA$44.00CA$39.00n/a5
Sep ’25CA$37.35
CA$41.20
+10.3%
4.2%CA$44.00CA$39.00n/a5
Aug ’25CA$36.28
CA$41.17
+13.5%
3.8%CA$44.00CA$39.00n/a6
Jul ’25CA$35.59
CA$40.67
+14.3%
2.3%CA$42.00CA$39.00n/a6
Jun ’25CA$36.99
CA$40.67
+9.9%
2.3%CA$42.00CA$39.00n/a6
May ’25CA$35.68
CA$41.00
+14.9%
3.7%CA$44.00CA$39.00n/a6
Apr ’25CA$37.56
CA$42.33
+12.7%
4.2%CA$45.00CA$40.00n/a6
Mar ’25CA$40.26
CA$42.33
+5.1%
4.2%CA$45.00CA$40.00n/a6
Feb ’25CA$40.90
CA$42.00
+2.7%
5.1%CA$45.00CA$39.00n/a6
Jan ’25CA$38.38
CA$41.67
+8.6%
4.5%CA$44.00CA$39.00n/a6
Dec ’24CA$37.85
CA$41.67
+10.1%
4.5%CA$44.00CA$39.00n/a6
Nov ’24CA$37.55
CA$41.83
+11.4%
4.5%CA$44.00CA$39.00CA$41.296
Oct ’24CA$35.65
CA$42.83
+20.1%
1.6%CA$44.00CA$42.00CA$39.776
Sep ’24CA$37.95
CA$42.83
+12.9%
1.6%CA$44.00CA$42.00CA$37.356
Aug ’24CA$39.00
CA$40.33
+3.4%
4.2%CA$44.00CA$39.00CA$36.286
Jul ’24CA$37.97
CA$39.50
+4.0%
1.3%CA$40.00CA$39.00CA$35.596
Jun ’24CA$38.02
CA$39.50
+3.9%
1.3%CA$40.00CA$39.00CA$36.996
May ’24CA$38.94
CA$39.33
+1.0%
1.9%CA$40.00CA$38.00CA$35.686
Apr ’24CA$38.12
CA$38.17
+0.1%
3.8%CA$40.00CA$36.00CA$37.566
Mar ’24CA$39.97
CA$37.67
-5.8%
5.0%CA$40.00CA$35.00CA$40.266
Feb ’24CA$37.67
CA$36.00
-4.4%
7.2%CA$40.00CA$33.00CA$40.906
Jan ’24CA$36.42
CA$35.83
-1.6%
6.7%CA$40.00CA$33.00CA$38.386
Dec ’23CA$35.98
CA$35.83
-0.4%
6.7%CA$40.00CA$33.00CA$37.856
Nov ’23CA$34.27
CA$35.83
+4.6%
6.7%CA$40.00CA$33.00CA$37.556

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.

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