First National Financial Corporation

TSX:FN Stock Report

Market Cap: CA$2.4b

First National Financial Valuation

Is FN undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of FN when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: FN (CA$40.16) is trading below our estimate of fair value (CA$71.41)

Significantly Below Fair Value: FN is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for FN?

Key metric: As FN is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for FN. This is calculated by dividing FN's market cap by their current earnings.
What is FN's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio13.3x
EarningsCA$180.66m
Market CapCA$2.43b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does FN's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for FN vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average10.4x
MKP MCAN Mortgage
7.7x-2.8%CA$701.3m
AI Atrium Mortgage Investment
11.1x7.1%CA$525.8m
TF Timbercreek Financial
10x1.5%CA$590.2m
FC Firm Capital Mortgage Investment
12.9xn/aCA$444.1m
FN First National Financial
13.3x15.9%CA$2.4b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: FN is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.3x) compared to the peer average (10.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does FN's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the North American Diversified Financial Industry?

3 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
FN 13.3xIndustry Avg. 14.6xNo. of Companies14PE01224364860+
3 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: FN is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.3x) compared to the North American Diversified Financial industry average (14.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is FN's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

FN PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio13.3x
Fair PE Ratio13.8x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: FN is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.8x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst FN forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentCA$40.16
CA$43.40
+8.1%
4.0%CA$46.00CA$41.00n/a5
Dec ’25CA$44.04
CA$43.40
-1.5%
4.0%CA$46.00CA$41.00n/a5
Nov ’25CA$41.29
CA$43.40
+5.1%
4.0%CA$46.00CA$41.00n/a5
Oct ’25CA$39.77
CA$41.20
+3.6%
4.2%CA$44.00CA$39.00n/a5
Sep ’25CA$37.35
CA$41.20
+10.3%
4.2%CA$44.00CA$39.00n/a5
Aug ’25CA$36.28
CA$41.17
+13.5%
3.8%CA$44.00CA$39.00n/a6
Jul ’25CA$35.59
CA$40.67
+14.3%
2.3%CA$42.00CA$39.00n/a6
Jun ’25CA$36.99
CA$40.67
+9.9%
2.3%CA$42.00CA$39.00n/a6
May ’25CA$35.68
CA$41.00
+14.9%
3.7%CA$44.00CA$39.00n/a6
Apr ’25CA$37.56
CA$42.33
+12.7%
4.2%CA$45.00CA$40.00n/a6
Mar ’25CA$40.26
CA$42.33
+5.1%
4.2%CA$45.00CA$40.00n/a6
Feb ’25CA$40.90
CA$42.00
+2.7%
5.1%CA$45.00CA$39.00n/a6
Jan ’25CA$38.38
CA$41.67
+8.6%
4.5%CA$44.00CA$39.00n/a6
Dec ’24CA$37.85
CA$41.67
+10.1%
4.5%CA$44.00CA$39.00CA$44.046
Nov ’24CA$37.55
CA$41.83
+11.4%
4.5%CA$44.00CA$39.00CA$41.296
Oct ’24CA$35.65
CA$42.83
+20.1%
1.6%CA$44.00CA$42.00CA$39.776
Sep ’24CA$37.95
CA$42.83
+12.9%
1.6%CA$44.00CA$42.00CA$37.356
Aug ’24CA$39.00
CA$40.33
+3.4%
4.2%CA$44.00CA$39.00CA$36.286
Jul ’24CA$37.97
CA$39.50
+4.0%
1.3%CA$40.00CA$39.00CA$35.596
Jun ’24CA$38.02
CA$39.50
+3.9%
1.3%CA$40.00CA$39.00CA$36.996
May ’24CA$38.94
CA$39.33
+1.0%
1.9%CA$40.00CA$38.00CA$35.686
Apr ’24CA$38.12
CA$38.17
+0.1%
3.8%CA$40.00CA$36.00CA$37.566
Mar ’24CA$39.97
CA$37.67
-5.8%
5.0%CA$40.00CA$35.00CA$40.266
Feb ’24CA$37.67
CA$36.00
-4.4%
7.2%CA$40.00CA$33.00CA$40.906
Jan ’24CA$36.42
CA$35.83
-1.6%
6.7%CA$40.00CA$33.00CA$38.386
Dec ’23CA$35.98
CA$35.83
-0.4%
6.7%CA$40.00CA$33.00CA$37.856

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/30 22:56
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/30 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

First National Financial Corporation is covered by 10 analysts. 4 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Etienne RicardBMO Capital Markets Equity Research
Nikolaus PriebeCIBC Capital Markets
Marc CharbinJennings Capital Inc.