Stock Analysis

The total return for First National Financial (TSE:FN) investors has risen faster than earnings growth over the last five years

TSX:FN
Source: Shutterstock

When you buy and hold a stock for the long term, you definitely want it to provide a positive return. Furthermore, you'd generally like to see the share price rise faster than the market. But First National Financial Corporation (TSE:FN) has fallen short of that second goal, with a share price rise of 27% over five years, which is below the market return. Zooming in, the stock is up just 1.1% in the last year.

Since the long term performance has been good but there's been a recent pullback of 8.3%, let's check if the fundamentals match the share price.

Our free stock report includes 2 warning signs investors should be aware of before investing in First National Financial. Read for free now.

There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

During five years of share price growth, First National Financial achieved compound earnings per share (EPS) growth of 2.8% per year. This EPS growth is lower than the 5% average annual increase in the share price. So it's fair to assume the market has a higher opinion of the business than it did five years ago. And that's hardly shocking given the track record of growth.

The image below shows how EPS has tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

earnings-per-share-growth
TSX:FN Earnings Per Share Growth May 6th 2025

We like that insiders have been buying shares in the last twelve months. Even so, future earnings will be far more important to whether current shareholders make money. Dive deeper into the earnings by checking this interactive graph of First National Financial's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

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What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. We note that for First National Financial the TSR over the last 5 years was 83%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

First National Financial shareholders gained a total return of 8.9% during the year. Unfortunately this falls short of the market return. If we look back over five years, the returns are even better, coming in at 13% per year for five years. It's quite possible the business continues to execute with prowess, even as the share price gains are slowing. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand First National Financial better, we need to consider many other factors. Even so, be aware that First National Financial is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 1 of those is a bit unpleasant...

If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: most of them are flying under the radar).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Canadian exchanges.

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Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

About TSX:FN

First National Financial

First National Financial Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, originates, underwrites, and services residential and commercial mortgages in Canada.

Undervalued established dividend payer.

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