Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc. Just Missed EPS By 21%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc. (TSE:ATD) just released its latest third-quarter report and things are not looking great. It wasn't a great result overall - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at US$20b, statutory earnings missed forecasts by an incredible 21%, coming in at just US$0.65 per share. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Check out our latest analysis for Alimentation Couche-Tard

After the latest results, the 13 analysts covering Alimentation Couche-Tard are now predicting revenues of US$76.5b in 2025. If met, this would reflect a notable 13% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to increase 4.3% to US$3.20. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$79.0b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$3.27 in 2025. It's pretty clear that pessimism has reared its head after the latest results, leading to a weaker revenue outlook and a small dip in earnings per share estimates.

The analysts made no major changes to their price target of CA$85.40, suggesting the downgrades are not expected to have a long-term impact on Alimentation Couche-Tard's valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Alimentation Couche-Tard at CA$94.55 per share, while the most bearish prices it at CA$63.72. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that Alimentation Couche-Tard's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 10.0% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 6.0% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 4.7% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Alimentation Couche-Tard to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. They also downgraded Alimentation Couche-Tard's revenue estimates, but industry data suggests that it is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Alimentation Couche-Tard going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Even so, be aware that Alimentation Couche-Tard is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , you should know about...

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.