In this article we are going to estimate the intrinsic value of GreenPower Motor Company Inc. (CVE:GPV) by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to today’s value. The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model is the tool we will apply to do this. Models like these may appear beyond the comprehension of a lay person, but they’re fairly easy to follow.
Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. If you still have some burning questions about this type of valuation, take a look at the Simply Wall St analysis model.
Crunching the numbers
We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company’s cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren’t available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today’s value:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast
|Levered FCF ($, Millions)||-US$12.5m||US$256.0k||US$7.64m||US$12.4m||US$17.9m||US$23.6m||US$28.9m||US$33.6m||US$37.6m||US$40.9m|
|Growth Rate Estimate Source||Analyst x1||Analyst x1||Analyst x1||Est @ 62.51%||Est @ 44.25%||Est @ 31.47%||Est @ 22.53%||Est @ 16.27%||Est @ 11.89%||Est @ 8.82%|
|Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 7.9%||-US$11.6||US$0.2||US$6.1||US$9.2||US$12.3||US$14.9||US$17.0||US$18.3||US$19.0||US$19.1|
(“Est” = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$104m
The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business’s cash flow after the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country’s GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (1.7%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year ‘growth’ period, we discount future cash flows to today’s value, using a cost of equity of 7.9%.
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2030 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$41m× (1 + 1.7%) ÷ (7.9%– 1.7%) = US$668m
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$668m÷ ( 1 + 7.9%)10= US$313m
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is US$417m. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of CA$19.1, the company appears quite good value at a 37% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope – move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.
The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. If you don’t agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company’s future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company’s potential performance. Given that we are looking at GreenPower Motor as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we’ve used 7.9%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.035. Beta is a measure of a stock’s volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
Whilst important, the DCF calculation is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Rather it should be seen as a guide to “what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?” For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. What is the reason for the share price sitting below the intrinsic value? For GreenPower Motor, we’ve put together three important elements you should look at:
- Risks: For example, we’ve discovered 2 warning signs for GreenPower Motor that you should be aware of before investing here.
- Management:Have insiders been ramping up their shares to take advantage of the market’s sentiment for GPV’s future outlook? Check out our management and board analysis with insights on CEO compensation and governance factors.
- Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the TSXV every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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