Stock Analysis

Finning International Inc.'s (TSE:FTT) Intrinsic Value Is Potentially 67% Above Its Share Price

TSX:FTT
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Key Insights

  • The projected fair value for Finning International is CA$56.25 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
  • Current share price of CA$33.70 suggests Finning International is potentially 40% undervalued
  • Analyst price target for FTT is CA$43.00 which is 24% below our fair value estimate

How far off is Finning International Inc. (TSE:FTT) from its intrinsic value? Using the most recent financial data, we'll take a look at whether the stock is fairly priced by taking the forecast future cash flows of the company and discounting them back to today's value. We will take advantage of the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model for this purpose. Believe it or not, it's not too difficult to follow, as you'll see from our example!

We would caution that there are many ways of valuing a company and, like the DCF, each technique has advantages and disadvantages in certain scenarios. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.

See our latest analysis for Finning International

The Model

We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032
Levered FCF (CA$, Millions) CA$678.0m CA$499.7m CA$565.0m CA$612.7m CA$652.1m CA$684.9m CA$712.6m CA$736.6m CA$757.8m CA$777.1m
Growth Rate Estimate Source Analyst x3 Analyst x3 Analyst x1 Est @ 8.44% Est @ 6.43% Est @ 5.03% Est @ 4.05% Est @ 3.36% Est @ 2.88% Est @ 2.55%
Present Value (CA$, Millions) Discounted @ 9.2% CA$621 CA$419 CA$433 CA$430 CA$419 CA$403 CA$384 CA$363 CA$342 CA$321

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = CA$4.1b

The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 1.8%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 9.2%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2032 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = CA$777m× (1 + 1.8%) ÷ (9.2%– 1.8%) = CA$11b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= CA$11b÷ ( 1 + 9.2%)10= CA$4.4b

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is CA$8.5b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of CA$33.7, the company appears quite undervalued at a 40% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.

dcf
TSX:FTT Discounted Cash Flow March 22nd 2023

Important Assumptions

The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Finning International as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 9.2%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.261. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for Finning International

Strength
  • Earnings growth over the past year exceeded the industry.
  • Debt is well covered by earnings.
Weakness
  • Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Trade Distributors market.
Opportunity
  • Annual earnings are forecast to grow for the next 2 years.
  • Good value based on P/E ratio and estimated fair value.
Threat
  • Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow.
  • Paying a dividend but company has no free cash flows.
  • Annual earnings are forecast to grow slower than the Canadian market.

Looking Ahead:

Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. Why is the intrinsic value higher than the current share price? For Finning International, there are three important factors you should assess:

  1. Risks: Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Finning International (of which 1 is potentially serious!) you should know about.
  2. Future Earnings: How does FTT's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
  3. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the TSX every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

Valuation is complex, but we're helping make it simple.

Find out whether Finning International is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.