Atrium Mortgage Investment Corporation

TSX:AI Stock Report

Mkt Cap: CA$498.8m

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Atrium Mortgage Investment Valuation

Is AI undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for AI?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

AI key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenuen/a
Enterprise Value/EBITDAn/a
PEG Ratio-6.7x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does AI's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for AI vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyPEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average12.3x
FC Firm Capital Mortgage Investment
12.9xn/aCA$414.2m
MKP MCAN Mortgage
11.6x27.0%CA$550.8m
TF Timbercreek Financial
15.2x11.8%CA$662.9m
HCG Home Capital Group
9.6x16.9%CA$1.6b
AI Atrium Mortgage Investment
11.4x-1.7%CA$498.8m


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does AI's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the North American Mortgage Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a15.6%
n/an/an/a


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is AI's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

AI PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio11.4x
Fair PE Ratio7.4x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: AI is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.4x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.4x).


Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of AI when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst AI forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentCA$11.51
CA$13.18
+14.5%
3.7%CA$13.55CA$12.50n/a3
Jan ’24CA$10.73
CA$13.18
+22.9%
3.7%CA$13.55CA$12.50n/a3
Dec ’23CA$11.20
CA$13.18
+17.7%
3.7%CA$13.55CA$12.50n/a3
Nov ’23CA$10.55
CA$13.63
+29.2%
1.4%CA$13.90CA$13.50n/a3
Oct ’23CA$10.67
CA$13.80
+29.3%
1.6%CA$14.00CA$13.50n/a3
Sep ’23CA$11.77
CA$13.80
+17.2%
1.6%CA$14.00CA$13.50n/a3
Aug ’23CA$11.76
CA$13.76
+17.0%
2.7%CA$14.28CA$13.50n/a3
Jul ’23CA$11.29
CA$13.93
+23.4%
2.3%CA$14.28CA$13.50n/a3
Jun ’23CA$13.35
CA$13.93
+4.3%
2.3%CA$14.28CA$13.50n/a3
May ’23CA$12.89
CA$14.98
+16.2%
2.9%CA$15.50CA$14.44n/a3
Apr ’23CA$14.17
CA$15.11
+6.6%
2.9%CA$15.50CA$14.44n/a4
Mar ’23CA$14.00
CA$15.33
+9.5%
1.5%CA$15.50CA$15.00n/a3
Feb ’23CA$14.20
CA$15.17
+6.8%
1.6%CA$15.50CA$15.00CA$11.423
Jan ’23CA$14.05
CA$15.25
+8.5%
1.6%CA$15.50CA$15.00CA$10.732
Dec ’22CA$13.51
CA$15.50
+14.7%
0%CA$15.50CA$15.50CA$11.201
Nov ’22CA$14.41
CA$15.13
+5.0%
3.4%CA$15.50CA$14.40CA$10.553
Oct ’22CA$14.27
CA$15.13
+6.0%
3.4%CA$15.50CA$14.40CA$10.673
Sep ’22CA$14.63
CA$15.13
+3.4%
3.4%CA$15.50CA$14.40CA$11.773
Aug ’22CA$14.48
CA$15.13
+4.5%
3.4%CA$15.50CA$14.40CA$11.763
Jul ’22CA$14.54
CA$14.80
+1.8%
1.9%CA$15.00CA$14.40CA$11.293
Jun ’22CA$14.17
CA$14.80
+4.4%
1.9%CA$15.00CA$14.40CA$13.353
May ’22CA$13.75
CA$13.93
+1.3%
3.5%CA$14.50CA$13.30CA$12.893
Apr ’22CA$13.11
CA$13.77
+5.0%
2.4%CA$14.00CA$13.30CA$14.173
Mar ’22CA$13.04
CA$13.77
+5.6%
2.4%CA$14.00CA$13.30CA$14.003
Feb ’22CA$12.81
CA$12.83
+0.2%
4.9%CA$13.50CA$12.00CA$14.203


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