Transmissora Aliança de Energia Elétrica S.A. Just Missed EPS By 43%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Transmissora Aliança de Energia Elétrica S.A. (BVMF:TAEE11) came out with its first-quarter results last week, and we wanted to see how the business is performing and what industry forecasters think of the company following this report. Statutory earnings per share disappointed, coming in -43% short of expectations, at R$0.37. Fortunately revenue performance was a lot stronger, with revenues of R$693m arriving 17% ahead of predictions. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

See our latest analysis for Transmissora Aliança de Energia Elétrica

After the latest results, the consensus from Transmissora Aliança de Energia Elétrica's nine analysts is for revenues of R$2.39b in 2023, which would reflect a noticeable 4.9% decline in sales compared to the last year of performance. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of R$2.38b and earnings per share (EPS) of R$3.81 in 2023. So we can see that while the consensus made no real change to its revenue estimates, it also no longer provides an earnings per share estimate, suggesting that revenues are what the market is focusing on after the latest results.

There's been no real change to the consensus price target of R$34.96, with Transmissora Aliança de Energia Elétrica seemingly executing in line with expectations. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Transmissora Aliança de Energia Elétrica, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at R$39.00 and the most bearish at R$30.00 per share. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business' future is relatively easy to value, or thatthe analysts have a strong view on its prospects.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Transmissora Aliança de Energia Elétrica's past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that sales are expected to reverse, with a forecast 6.5% annualised revenue decline to the end of 2023. That is a notable change from historical growth of 18% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 2.9% per year. It's pretty clear that Transmissora Aliança de Energia Elétrica's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The clear take away from these updates is that the analysts made no change to their revenue estimates for next year, with the business apparently performing in line with their models. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting sales are tracking in line with expectations - although our data does suggest that Transmissora Aliança de Energia Elétrica's revenues are expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at R$34.96, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

We have estimates for Transmissora Aliança de Energia Elétrica from its nine analysts out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Plus, you should also learn about the 2 warning signs we've spotted with Transmissora Aliança de Energia Elétrica .

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.