Alupar Investimento S.A. Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

Alupar Investimento S.A. (BVMF:ALUP11) last week reported its latest annual results, which makes it a good time for investors to dive in and see if the business is performing in line with expectations. Results overall were not great, with earnings of R$0.77 per share falling drastically short of analyst expectations. Meanwhile revenues hit R$3.3b and were slightly better than forecasts. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Alupar Investimento after the latest results.

View our latest analysis for Alupar Investimento

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Alupar Investimento from seven analysts is for revenues of R$3.43b in 2024. If met, it would imply a satisfactory 3.5% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of R$3.45b and earnings per share (EPS) of R$2.80 in 2024. Overall, while the analysts have reconfirmed their revenue estimates, the consensus now no longer provides an EPS estimate. This implies that the market believes revenue is more important after these latest results.

We'd also point out that thatthe analysts have made no major changes to their price target of R$33.57. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Alupar Investimento analyst has a price target of R$37.40 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at R$30.00. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business' future is relatively easy to value, or thatthe analysts have a strong view on its prospects.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Alupar Investimento's past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's clear from the latest estimates that Alupar Investimento's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 3.5% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 1.1% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 2.0% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Alupar Investimento to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their revenue estimates for next year, suggesting that the business is performing in line with expectations. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at R$33.57, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

At least one of Alupar Investimento's seven analysts has provided estimates out to 2026, which can be seen for free on our platform here.

You still need to take note of risks, for example - Alupar Investimento has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.