Stock Analysis

Alupar Investimento (BVMF:ALUP11) Has A Somewhat Strained Balance Sheet

BOVESPA:ALUP11
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David Iben put it well when he said, 'Volatility is not a risk we care about. What we care about is avoiding the permanent loss of capital.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. Importantly, Alupar Investimento S.A. (BVMF:ALUP11) does carry debt. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?

What Risk Does Debt Bring?

Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.

Check out our latest analysis for Alupar Investimento

What Is Alupar Investimento's Net Debt?

The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at September 2021 Alupar Investimento had debt of R$9.39b, up from R$8.74b in one year. However, it does have R$959.0m in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about R$8.44b.

debt-equity-history-analysis
BOVESPA:ALUP11 Debt to Equity History January 22nd 2022

How Healthy Is Alupar Investimento's Balance Sheet?

According to the last reported balance sheet, Alupar Investimento had liabilities of R$2.04b due within 12 months, and liabilities of R$12.2b due beyond 12 months. On the other hand, it had cash of R$959.0m and R$2.06b worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by R$11.2b.

This deficit casts a shadow over the R$7.26b company, like a colossus towering over mere mortals. So we'd watch its balance sheet closely, without a doubt. After all, Alupar Investimento would likely require a major re-capitalisation if it had to pay its creditors today.

We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.

Alupar Investimento's net debt is sitting at a very reasonable 1.8 times its EBITDA, while its EBIT covered its interest expense just 6.3 times last year. While these numbers do not alarm us, it's worth noting that the cost of the company's debt is having a real impact. It is well worth noting that Alupar Investimento's EBIT shot up like bamboo after rain, gaining 90% in the last twelve months. That'll make it easier to manage its debt. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Alupar Investimento's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.

But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. Over the last three years, Alupar Investimento recorded negative free cash flow, in total. Debt is usually more expensive, and almost always more risky in the hands of a company with negative free cash flow. Shareholders ought to hope for an improvement.

Our View

To be frank both Alupar Investimento's conversion of EBIT to free cash flow and its track record of staying on top of its total liabilities make us rather uncomfortable with its debt levels. But on the bright side, its EBIT growth rate is a good sign, and makes us more optimistic. It's also worth noting that Alupar Investimento is in the Electric Utilities industry, which is often considered to be quite defensive. Looking at the balance sheet and taking into account all these factors, we do believe that debt is making Alupar Investimento stock a bit risky. Some people like that sort of risk, but we're mindful of the potential pitfalls, so we'd probably prefer it carry less debt. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. We've identified 3 warning signs with Alupar Investimento (at least 2 which are a bit unpleasant) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.