Rumo Valuation
Is RAIL3 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?
Valuation Score
1/6Valuation Score 1/6
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast
Share Price vs Fair Value
What is the Fair Price of RAIL3 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.
Below Fair Value: RAIL3 (R$20.53) is trading above our estimate of fair value (R$8.23)
Significantly Below Fair Value: RAIL3 is trading above our estimate of fair value.
Key Valuation Metric
Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for RAIL3?
Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.
| What is RAIL3's n/a Ratio? | |
|---|---|
| n/a | 0x |
| n/a | n/a |
| Market Cap | R$37.97b |
| Key Statistics | |
|---|---|
| Enterprise Value/Revenue | 4.9x |
| Enterprise Value/EBITDA | 10x |
| PEG Ratio | 2x |
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers
How does RAIL3's PE Ratio compare to its peers?
| Company | Forward PE | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peer Average | 18.7x | ||
MRSA3B MRS Logística | 7.6x | n/a | R$9.0b |
RENT3 Localiza Rent a Car | 28.4x | 34.5% | R$51.3b |
CCRO3 CCR | 14.8x | 12.2% | R$25.3b |
STBP3 Santos Brasil Participações | 24x | 21.4% | R$12.1b |
RAIL3 Rumo | 52.8x | 26.9% | R$38.0b |
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: RAIL3 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (52.8x) compared to the peer average (18.7x).
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry
How does RAIL3's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Transportation Industry?
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: RAIL3 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (52.8x) compared to the Global Transportation industry average (15.3x).
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio
What is RAIL3's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
| Fair Ratio | |
|---|---|
| Current PE Ratio | 52.8x |
| Fair PE Ratio | 25x |
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: RAIL3 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (52.8x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (25x).
Analyst Price Targets
What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?
| Date | Share Price | Average 1Y Price Target | Dispersion | High | Low | 1Y Actual price | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current | R$20.53 | R$29.43 +43.3% | 9.1% | R$36.00 | R$24.00 | n/a | 14 |
| Apr ’25 | R$22.05 | R$28.67 +30.0% | 7.5% | R$32.00 | R$24.00 | n/a | 14 |
| Mar ’25 | R$22.26 | R$28.67 +28.8% | 7.5% | R$32.00 | R$24.00 | n/a | 14 |
| Feb ’25 | R$23.02 | R$28.53 +23.9% | 7.8% | R$32.00 | R$24.00 | n/a | 14 |
| Jan ’25 | R$22.95 | R$28.99 +26.3% | 8.4% | R$34.00 | R$24.00 | n/a | 14 |
| Dec ’24 | R$22.77 | R$28.78 +26.4% | 8.6% | R$34.00 | R$24.00 | n/a | 14 |
| Nov ’24 | R$23.00 | R$28.56 +24.2% | 8.7% | R$34.00 | R$24.00 | n/a | 14 |
| Oct ’24 | R$22.82 | R$27.36 +19.9% | 10.8% | R$32.00 | R$21.00 | n/a | 15 |
| Sep ’24 | R$22.67 | R$26.21 +15.6% | 11.1% | R$32.00 | R$21.00 | n/a | 14 |
| Aug ’24 | R$23.00 | R$25.39 +10.4% | 10.0% | R$32.00 | R$21.00 | n/a | 14 |
| Jul ’24 | R$22.20 | R$25.13 +13.2% | 9.6% | R$32.00 | R$21.00 | n/a | 15 |
| Jun ’24 | R$21.97 | R$24.73 +12.5% | 6.4% | R$27.00 | R$21.00 | n/a | 15 |
| May ’24 | R$19.70 | R$24.14 +22.5% | 7.4% | R$27.00 | R$21.00 | R$20.16 | 17 |
| Apr ’24 | R$18.85 | R$24.08 +27.8% | 7.8% | R$27.00 | R$21.00 | R$22.05 | 17 |
| Mar ’24 | R$17.43 | R$24.05 +38.0% | 8.4% | R$27.00 | R$20.00 | R$22.26 | 17 |
| Feb ’24 | R$18.14 | R$24.52 +35.2% | 10.6% | R$31.00 | R$20.00 | R$23.02 | 17 |
| Jan ’24 | R$18.61 | R$24.52 +31.8% | 10.6% | R$31.00 | R$20.00 | R$22.95 | 17 |
| Dec ’23 | R$19.11 | R$24.76 +29.5% | 11.5% | R$31.00 | R$20.00 | R$22.77 | 17 |
| Nov ’23 | R$21.85 | R$24.52 +12.2% | 12.2% | R$31.00 | R$20.00 | R$23.00 | 17 |
| Oct ’23 | R$18.48 | R$24.11 +30.5% | 12.7% | R$31.00 | R$20.00 | R$22.82 | 17 |
| Sep ’23 | R$20.37 | R$23.98 +17.7% | 12.9% | R$32.80 | R$20.00 | R$22.67 | 16 |
| Aug ’23 | R$17.54 | R$23.31 +32.9% | 14.4% | R$32.80 | R$20.00 | R$23.00 | 15 |
| Jul ’23 | R$15.99 | R$24.06 +50.5% | 14.6% | R$32.80 | R$20.00 | R$22.20 | 14 |
| Jun ’23 | R$17.79 | R$24.06 +35.2% | 14.6% | R$32.80 | R$20.00 | R$21.97 | 14 |
| May ’23 | R$16.37 | R$24.52 +49.8% | 13.4% | R$32.80 | R$20.00 | R$19.70 | 14 |
Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.