Rumo Valuation
Is RAIL3 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?
Valuation Score
1/6Valuation Score 1/6
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Sales vs Peers
Price-To-Sales vs Industry
Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast
Share Price vs Fair Value
What is the Fair Price of RAIL3 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.
Below Fair Value: RAIL3 (R$18.15) is trading above our estimate of fair value (R$4.1)
Significantly Below Fair Value: RAIL3 is trading above our estimate of fair value.
Key Valuation Metric
Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for RAIL3?
Key metric: As RAIL3 is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.
| What is RAIL3's PS Ratio? | |
|---|---|
| PS Ratio | 2.6x |
| Sales | R$13.09b |
| Market Cap | R$35.00b |
| Key Statistics | |
|---|---|
| Enterprise Value/Revenue | 3.8x |
| Enterprise Value/EBITDA | 7.2x |
| PEG Ratio | n/a |
Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers
How does RAIL3's PS Ratio compare to its peers?
| Company | Forward PS | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peer Average | 1.8x | ||
MRSA3B MRS Logística | 1.4x | n/a | R$9.8b |
RENT3 Localiza Rent a Car | 0.9x | 14.4% | R$33.1b |
CCRO3 CCR | 0.9x | -6.7% | R$21.6b |
STBP3 Santos Brasil Participações | 4.1x | 11.7% | R$11.3b |
RAIL3 Rumo | 2.6x | 9.2% | R$35.0b |
Price-To-Sales vs Peers: RAIL3 is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (2.6x) compared to the peer average (1.8x).
Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry
How does RAIL3's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Transportation Industry?
| 26 Companies | Price / Sales | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Companies | Estimated Growth | Market Cap | |
|---|---|---|---|
Price-To-Sales vs Industry: RAIL3 is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (2.6x) compared to the Global Transportation industry average (0.9x).
Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio
What is RAIL3's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
| Fair Ratio | |
|---|---|
| Current PS Ratio | 2.6x |
| Fair PS Ratio | 1.5x |
Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: RAIL3 is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (2.6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.5x).
Analyst Price Targets
What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?
| Date | Share Price | Average 1Y Price Target | Dispersion | High | Low | 1Y Actual price | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current | R$18.15 | R$28.49 +57.0% | 11.5% | R$35.00 | R$22.50 | n/a | 15 |
| Dec ’25 | R$19.45 | R$29.35 +50.9% | 11.4% | R$35.00 | R$24.00 | n/a | 15 |
| Nov ’25 | R$19.45 | R$29.32 +50.8% | 10.9% | R$35.00 | R$23.00 | n/a | 14 |
| Oct ’25 | R$19.86 | R$29.89 +50.5% | 9.7% | R$35.00 | R$24.00 | n/a | 14 |
| Sep ’25 | R$21.85 | R$29.79 +36.3% | 8.2% | R$35.00 | R$24.00 | n/a | 14 |
| Aug ’25 | R$22.90 | R$28.96 +26.5% | 7.1% | R$32.00 | R$24.00 | n/a | 14 |
| Jul ’25 | R$20.60 | R$28.54 +38.5% | 7.3% | R$30.00 | R$24.00 | n/a | 13 |
| Jun ’25 | R$19.71 | R$28.58 +45.0% | 8.0% | R$31.00 | R$24.00 | n/a | 13 |
| May ’25 | R$20.16 | R$29.43 +46.0% | 9.1% | R$36.00 | R$24.00 | n/a | 14 |
| Apr ’25 | R$22.05 | R$28.67 +30.0% | 7.5% | R$32.00 | R$24.00 | n/a | 14 |
| Mar ’25 | R$22.26 | R$28.67 +28.8% | 7.5% | R$32.00 | R$24.00 | n/a | 14 |
| Feb ’25 | R$23.02 | R$28.53 +23.9% | 7.8% | R$32.00 | R$24.00 | n/a | 14 |
| Jan ’25 | R$22.95 | R$28.99 +26.3% | 8.4% | R$34.00 | R$24.00 | n/a | 14 |
| Dec ’24 | R$22.77 | R$28.78 +26.4% | 8.6% | R$34.00 | R$24.00 | R$19.45 | 14 |
| Nov ’24 | R$23.00 | R$28.56 +24.2% | 8.7% | R$34.00 | R$24.00 | R$19.45 | 14 |
| Oct ’24 | R$22.82 | R$27.36 +19.9% | 10.8% | R$32.00 | R$21.00 | R$19.86 | 15 |
| Sep ’24 | R$22.67 | R$26.21 +15.6% | 11.1% | R$32.00 | R$21.00 | R$21.85 | 14 |
| Aug ’24 | R$23.00 | R$25.39 +10.4% | 10.0% | R$32.00 | R$21.00 | R$22.90 | 14 |
| Jul ’24 | R$22.20 | R$25.13 +13.2% | 9.6% | R$32.00 | R$21.00 | R$20.60 | 15 |
| Jun ’24 | R$21.97 | R$24.73 +12.5% | 6.4% | R$27.00 | R$21.00 | R$19.71 | 15 |
| May ’24 | R$19.70 | R$24.14 +22.5% | 7.4% | R$27.00 | R$21.00 | R$20.16 | 17 |
| Apr ’24 | R$18.85 | R$24.08 +27.8% | 7.8% | R$27.00 | R$21.00 | R$22.05 | 17 |
| Mar ’24 | R$17.43 | R$24.05 +38.0% | 8.4% | R$27.00 | R$20.00 | R$22.26 | 17 |
| Feb ’24 | R$18.14 | R$24.52 +35.2% | 10.6% | R$31.00 | R$20.00 | R$23.02 | 17 |
| Jan ’24 | R$18.61 | R$24.52 +31.8% | 10.6% | R$31.00 | R$20.00 | R$22.95 | 17 |
| Dec ’23 | R$19.11 | R$24.76 +29.5% | 11.5% | R$31.00 | R$20.00 | R$22.77 | 17 |
Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.
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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2024/12/18 09:31 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2024/12/18 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2024/09/30 |
| Annual Earnings | 2023/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
| |
| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
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| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.
Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.
Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .
Analyst Sources
Rumo S.A. is covered by 32 analysts. 13 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Mauro Suarez | Alliance Global Partners |
| Daniel Spilberg | Barclays |
| Rogerio Araujo | BofA Global Research |