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Rumo S.A. Stock Price

BOVESPA:RAIL3 Community·R$25.2b Market Cap
  • 3 Narratives written by author
  • 2 Comments on narratives written by author
  • 9 Fair Values set on narratives written by author

RAIL3 Share Price Performance

R$13.57
-3.28 (-19.47%)
R$23.00
Fair Value
R$13.57
-3.28 (-19.47%)
41.0% undervalued intrinsic discount
R$23.00
Fair Value
Price R$13.57
AnalystHighTarget R$23.00
AnalystConsensusTarget R$19.05
AnalystLowTarget R$13.61

RAIL3 Community Narratives

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Fair Value R$23 41.0% undervalued intrinsic discount

Brazil Rail Expansion Will Harness Secular Decarbonization And Infrastructure Impulses

1users have liked this narrative
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3users have followed this narrative
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Fair Value R$19.05 28.8% undervalued intrinsic discount

Mato Grosso Rail Investment Will Boost Brazilian Food Exports

1users have liked this narrative
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2users have followed this narrative
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Fair Value R$13.61 0.3% undervalued intrinsic discount

Brazilian Commodity Risks Will Hinder Rail Expansion Yet Encourage Recovery

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R$13.61
0.3% undervalued intrinsic discount
Revenue
-1.17% p.a.
Profit Margin
17.37%
Future PE
20.2x
Price in 2029
R$25.65
R$19.05
28.8% undervalued intrinsic discount
Revenue
2.9% p.a.
Profit Margin
20.31%
Future PE
21.5x
Price in 2029
R$36.03
R$23
41.0% undervalued intrinsic discount
Revenue
6.91% p.a.
Profit Margin
20.31%
Future PE
23.21x
Price in 2029
R$43.61

Trending Discussion

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Regarding the price of RAIL3 shares trading at their lowest levels in recent years: El Niño (crop failure or decline) + Suffocating real interest rates 1- The Weight of Debt in a High Interest Rate Scenario: The financial market projects higher inflation and the Selic rate returning to high levels by the end of 2026. The company's net debt exceeds R$ 16.9 billion, operating at levels of financial leverage (Net Debt/EBITDA) above 2.1x. 2- When truck freight becomes very expensive (with diesel rising due to tensions in the Middle East), Rumo gains bargaining power to charge higher rates on its railways. The current problem: Although this price differential exists, Rumo has had to give up price (consolidated rate) in recent quarters to guarantee volume. If the agricultural market is wary of the size of the upcoming harvest, trading companies and producers are closing logistical contracts with more caution and less aggressive pricing. Thus, the theoretical advantage clashes with a more fragile and selective real commercial demand. 3- The Devastating Impact of El Niño on the 2026 Harvest Railroads are a business with extremely high fixed costs. The track and the wagon generate gigantic expenses regardless of whether they are full or empty. To be profitable, the rail transport mode needs extreme volume. El Niño hits the company's main growth avenue: the outflow of grains (soybeans and corn) from the Midwest to the Port of Santos. Corn and ethanol dynamics: The expansion of corn ethanol plants in Mato Grosso also consumes the grain internally, reducing the volume that needs to travel by train to the ports for export. Without the expected volume of the bumper crop, the dilution of fixed costs worsens, driving down the company's operating margins.

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Updated Narratives

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RAIL3: Higher Discount Rate And Richer P/E Will Shape Balanced Prospects

Fair Value: R$13.61 0.3% undervalued intrinsic discount
0 users have set this as their fair value
0 users have commented on this narrative
0 users have liked this narrative
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RAIL3: Future Dividend Policy And Higher P/E Assumptions Will Support Returns

Fair Value: R$19.05 28.8% undervalued intrinsic discount
2 users have set this as their fair value
0 users have commented on this narrative
0 users have liked this narrative
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RAIL3: Future Dividend Visibility And Margins Support Higher Share Price

Fair Value: R$23 41.0% undervalued intrinsic discount
3 users have set this as their fair value
2 users have commented on this narrative
0 users have liked this narrative

Snowflake Analysis

Fair value with moderate growth potential.

2 Risks
4 Rewards

Rumo S.A. Key Details

R$14.2b

Revenue

R$7.7b

Cost of Revenue

R$6.5b

Gross Profit

R$5.4b

Other Expenses

R$1.0b

Earnings

Last Reported Earnings
Mar 31, 2026
Next Reporting Earnings
Aug 12, 2026
0.56
45.56%
7.34%
176.0%
View Full Analysis

About RAIL3

Founded
1997
Employees
8255
CEO
Pedro Marcus Palma
WebsiteView website
www.rumolog.com

Rumo S.A., through its subsidiaries, engages in the rail logistics operation. The company operates through North Operations, South Operations, and Container Operations segments. The North Operations segment is involved in the railway, highway, and transshipment operations. The South Operations segment comprises of rail and transhipment operations in the area of Rumo Malha Sul and Rumo Malha Oeste concessions. The Container Operations segment engages in the rail and road transport, and container logistics and operations. It offers logistics services primarily for exporting commodities, including integrated solution for transportation, movement, storage, and shipment from the production centers to the main ports in the south and southeast of Brazil. The company was incorporated in 1997 and is headquartered in Curitiba, Brazil.