São Martinho S.A. (BVMF:SMTO3) Just Released Its Second-Quarter Earnings: Here's What Analysts Think

Last week, you might have seen that São Martinho S.A. (BVMF:SMTO3) released its second-quarter result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 9.4% to R$24.54 in the past week. Revenues came in at R$2.1b, an impressive 21% ahead of analyst forecasts. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on São Martinho after the latest results.

View our latest analysis for São Martinho

Following last week's earnings report, São Martinho's ten analysts are forecasting 2025 revenues to be R$7.70b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of R$7.57b and earnings per share (EPS) of R$2.50 in 2025. Overall, while the analysts have reconfirmed their revenue estimates, the consensus now no longer provides an EPS estimate. This implies that the market believes revenue is more important after these latest results.

We'd also point out that thatthe analysts have made no major changes to their price target of R$35.68. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on São Martinho, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at R$42.00 and the most bearish at R$30.00 per share. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that São Martinho's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 2.1% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 15% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 5.8% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that São Martinho is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their revenue estimates for next year, suggesting that the business is performing in line with expectations. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at R$35.68, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

At least one of São Martinho's ten analysts has provided estimates out to 2027, which can be seen for free on our platform here.

Plus, you should also learn about the 3 warning signs we've spotted with São Martinho (including 2 which are significant) .

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.