BRF S.A. Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now

Shareholders might have noticed that BRF S.A. (BVMF:BRFS3) filed its full-year result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 5.6% to R$17.93 in the past week. Revenues were in line with forecasts, at R$61b, although statutory earnings per share came in 19% below what the analysts expected, at R$1.94 per share. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

See our latest analysis for BRF

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from BRF's ten analysts is for revenues of R$63.9b in 2025. This reflects an okay 4.1% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of R$65.6b and earnings per share (EPS) of R$2.13 in 2025. So we can see that while the consensus made a minor downgrade to revenue estimates, it no longer provides an earnings per share estimate. This suggests that the market is now more focused on revenue after the latest result.

There's been no real change to the consensus price target of R$28.07, with BRF seemingly executing in line with expectations. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on BRF, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at R$34.00 and the most bearish at R$21.00 per share. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that BRF's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 4.1% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 11% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 7.1% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that BRF is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their revenue estimates for next year. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply revenues will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at R$28.07, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

At least one of BRF's ten analysts has provided estimates out to 2027, which can be seen for free on our platform here.

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 3 warning signs for BRF (2 are significant!) that you need to be mindful of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.