Ultrapar Participações S.A. Just Beat Earnings Expectations: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Ultrapar Participações S.A. (BVMF:UGPA3) defied analyst predictions to release its quarterly results, which were ahead of market expectations. The company beat expectations with revenues of R$35b arriving 2.7% ahead of forecasts. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) were R$0.58, 5.6% ahead of estimates. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Ultrapar Participações after the latest results.

Check out our latest analysis for Ultrapar Participações

Following last week's earnings report, Ultrapar Participações' twelve analysts are forecasting 2025 revenues to be R$131.0b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to sink 15% to R$2.04 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of R$130.6b and earnings per share (EPS) of R$2.04 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at R$27.93. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on Ultrapar Participações, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at R$33.00 and the most bearish at R$18.80 per share. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 0.3% annualised decline to the end of 2025. That is a notable change from historical growth of 12% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 1.0% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Ultrapar Participações is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Ultrapar Participações' revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at R$27.93, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Ultrapar Participações. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Ultrapar Participações going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 3 warning signs for Ultrapar Participações that you need to be mindful of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.