David Iben put it well when he said, 'Volatility is not a risk we care about. What we care about is avoiding the permanent loss of capital.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. As with many other companies Prio S.A. (BVMF:PRIO3) makes use of debt. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.
When Is Debt A Problem?
Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.
Check out our latest analysis for Prio
What Is Prio's Net Debt?
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at September 2024 Prio had debt of R$16.8b, up from R$8.42b in one year. However, it does have R$11.8b in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about R$4.99b.
A Look At Prio's Liabilities
The latest balance sheet data shows that Prio had liabilities of R$3.44b due within a year, and liabilities of R$21.7b falling due after that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of R$11.8b as well as receivables valued at R$2.93b due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling R$10.4b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
This deficit isn't so bad because Prio is worth R$33.3b, and thus could probably raise enough capital to shore up its balance sheet, if the need arose. But it's clear that we should definitely closely examine whether it can manage its debt without dilution.
We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).
Prio has net debt of just 0.54 times EBITDA, indicating that it is certainly not a reckless borrower. And it boasts interest cover of 8.7 times, which is more than adequate. Another good sign is that Prio has been able to increase its EBIT by 30% in twelve months, making it easier to pay down debt. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Prio can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So it's worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. Considering the last three years, Prio actually recorded a cash outflow, overall. Debt is far more risky for companies with unreliable free cash flow, so shareholders should be hoping that the past expenditure will produce free cash flow in the future.
Our View
On our analysis Prio's EBIT growth rate should signal that it won't have too much trouble with its debt. However, our other observations weren't so heartening. To be specific, it seems about as good at converting EBIT to free cash flow as wet socks are at keeping your feet warm. Considering this range of data points, we think Prio is in a good position to manage its debt levels. Having said that, the load is sufficiently heavy that we would recommend any shareholders keep a close eye on it. Above most other metrics, we think its important to track how fast earnings per share is growing, if at all. If you've also come to that realization, you're in luck, because today you can view this interactive graph of Prio's earnings per share history for free.
At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About BOVESPA:PRIO3
Prio
Engages in the exploration, development, and production of oil and natural gas properties in Brazil and internationally.
Very undervalued with high growth potential.