Is Ser Educacional (BVMF:SEER3) A Risky Investment?

Warren Buffett famously said, 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. We note that Ser Educacional S.A. (BVMF:SEER3) does have debt on its balance sheet. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?

Why Does Debt Bring Risk?

Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.

See our latest analysis for Ser Educacional

What Is Ser Educacional's Net Debt?

You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that Ser Educacional had R$435.6m of debt in December 2021, down from R$590.4m, one year before. However, it does have R$234.7m in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about R$200.9m.

How Healthy Is Ser Educacional's Balance Sheet?

The latest balance sheet data shows that Ser Educacional had liabilities of R$518.7m due within a year, and liabilities of R$1.11b falling due after that. Offsetting this, it had R$234.7m in cash and R$399.8m in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by R$995.1m.

This deficit is considerable relative to its market capitalization of R$1.06b, so it does suggest shareholders should keep an eye on Ser Educacional's use of debt. Should its lenders demand that it shore up the balance sheet, shareholders would likely face severe dilution.

We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).

Looking at its net debt to EBITDA of 0.63 and interest cover of 3.1 times, it seems to us that Ser Educacional is probably using debt in a pretty reasonable way. So we'd recommend keeping a close eye on the impact financing costs are having on the business. Importantly, Ser Educacional's EBIT fell a jaw-dropping 35% in the last twelve months. If that decline continues then paying off debt will be harder than selling foie gras at a vegan convention. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Ser Educacional's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.

Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. So we clearly need to look at whether that EBIT is leading to corresponding free cash flow. During the last three years, Ser Educacional produced sturdy free cash flow equating to 58% of its EBIT, about what we'd expect. This cold hard cash means it can reduce its debt when it wants to.

Our View

We'd go so far as to say Ser Educacional's EBIT growth rate was disappointing. But on the bright side, its net debt to EBITDA is a good sign, and makes us more optimistic. Overall, we think it's fair to say that Ser Educacional has enough debt that there are some real risks around the balance sheet. If everything goes well that may pay off but the downside of this debt is a greater risk of permanent losses. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. For instance, we've identified 4 warning signs for Ser Educacional that you should be aware of.

At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.