Cogna Educação S.A. (BVMF:COGN3) Just Reported Annual Earnings: Have Analysts Changed Their Mind On The Stock?

Cogna Educação S.A. (BVMF:COGN3) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 2.4% to R$1.61 in the week after its latest full-year results. It was an okay report, and revenues came in at R$6.4b, approximately in line with analyst estimates leading up to the results announcement. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Cogna Educação after the latest results.

View our latest analysis for Cogna Educação

After the latest results, the twelve analysts covering Cogna Educação are now predicting revenues of R$6.77b in 2025. If met, this would reflect a satisfactory 6.0% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to plummet 70% to R$0.14 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of R$6.85b and earnings per share (EPS) of R$0.14 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of R$2.15, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Cogna Educação, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at R$4.20 and the most bearish at R$1.50 per share. With such a wide range in price targets, analysts are almost certainly betting on widely divergent outcomes in the underlying business. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. The analysts are definitely expecting Cogna Educação's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 6.0% annualised growth to the end of 2025 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 2.3% per annum over the past five years. Other similar companies in the industry (with analyst coverage) are also forecast to grow their revenue at 6.4% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Cogna Educação is expected to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Happily, there were no real changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow in line with the overall industry. The consensus price target held steady at R$2.15, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Cogna Educação going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Plus, you should also learn about the 1 warning sign we've spotted with Cogna Educação .

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.