Earnings Beat: Raia Drogasil S.A. Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Models

It's been a good week for Raia Drogasil S.A. (BVMF:RADL3) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest third-quarter results, and the shares gained 5.3% to R$25.62. Revenues were R$10.0b, approximately in line with expectations, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) performed substantially better. EPS of R$0.20 were also better than expected, beating analyst predictions by 19%. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

View our latest analysis for Raia Drogasil

Following the latest results, Raia Drogasil's 13 analysts are now forecasting revenues of R$45.2b in 2025. This would be a decent 20% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of R$45.2b and earnings per share (EPS) of R$0.89 in 2025. So we can see that while the consensus made no real change to its revenue estimates, it also no longer provides an earnings per share estimate. This suggests that revenues are what the market is focusing on after the latest results.

There's been no real change to the consensus price target of R$30.73, with Raia Drogasil seemingly executing in line with expectations. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic Raia Drogasil analyst has a price target of R$35.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at R$23.00. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. The period to the end of 2025 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 16% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 16% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 11% annually. So although Raia Drogasil is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's definitely expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The clear take away from these updates is that the analysts made no change to their revenue estimates for next year, with the business apparently performing in line with their models. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

At least one of Raia Drogasil's 13 analysts has provided estimates out to 2026, which can be seen for free on our platform here.

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Raia Drogasil you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.