Results: Vivara Participações S.A. Exceeded Expectations And The Consensus Has Updated Its Estimates

A week ago, Vivara Participações S.A. (BVMF:VIVA3) came out with a strong set of quarterly numbers that could potentially lead to a re-rate of the stock. It was overall a positive result, with revenues beating expectations by 3.4% to hit R$537m. Vivara Participações also reported a statutory profit of R$0.49, which was an impressive 88% above what the analysts had forecast. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

We've discovered 2 warning signs about Vivara Participações. View them for free.

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Vivara Participações' eleven analysts is for revenues of R$3.01b in 2025. This would reflect a solid 13% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to decline 17% to R$2.59 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of R$2.97b and earnings per share (EPS) of R$2.41 in 2025. The analysts seems to have become more bullish on the business, judging by their new earnings per share estimates.

See our latest analysis for Vivara Participações

There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of R$28.46, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic Vivara Participações analyst has a price target of R$35.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at R$25.00. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Vivara Participações shareholders.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. The period to the end of 2025 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 17% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 18% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 9.3% annually. So although Vivara Participações is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's definitely expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Vivara Participações following these results. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Vivara Participações going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 2 warning signs for Vivara Participações (1 doesn't sit too well with us!) that you should be aware of.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.