Stock Analysis

Romi's (BVMF:ROMI3) five-year total shareholder returns outpace the underlying earnings growth

BOVESPA:ROMI3
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Romi S.A. (BVMF:ROMI3) shareholders might be concerned after seeing the share price drop 12% in the last week. Looking further back, the stock has generated good profits over five years. It has returned a market beating 67% in that time. Unfortunately not all shareholders will have held it for the long term, so spare a thought for those caught in the 24% decline over the last twelve months.

While the stock has fallen 12% this week, it's worth focusing on the longer term and seeing if the stocks historical returns have been driven by the underlying fundamentals.

View our latest analysis for Romi

There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

During five years of share price growth, Romi achieved compound earnings per share (EPS) growth of 14% per year. This EPS growth is higher than the 11% average annual increase in the share price. So one could conclude that the broader market has become more cautious towards the stock. This cautious sentiment is reflected in its (fairly low) P/E ratio of 6.19.

The image below shows how EPS has tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

earnings-per-share-growth
BOVESPA:ROMI3 Earnings Per Share Growth April 18th 2024

Dive deeper into Romi's key metrics by checking this interactive graph of Romi's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. As it happens, Romi's TSR for the last 5 years was 140%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

While the broader market gained around 21% in the last year, Romi shareholders lost 21% (even including dividends). However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. On the bright side, long term shareholders have made money, with a gain of 19% per year over half a decade. If the fundamental data continues to indicate long term sustainable growth, the current sell-off could be an opportunity worth considering. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. For instance, we've identified 3 warning signs for Romi (1 is significant) that you should be aware of.

If you are like me, then you will not want to miss this free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Brazilian exchanges.

Valuation is complex, but we're helping make it simple.

Find out whether Romi is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.