Should You Rely On Sopharma AD's (BUL:3JR) Earnings Growth?

Statistically speaking, it is less risky to invest in profitable companies than in unprofitable ones. However, sometimes companies receive a one-off boost (or reduction) to their profit, and it's not always clear whether statutory profits are a good guide, going forward. This article will consider whether Sopharma AD's (BUL:3JR) statutory profits are a good guide to its underlying earnings.

While Sopharma AD was able to generate revenue of лв1.38b in the last twelve months, we think its profit result of лв79.5m was more important. In the chart below, you can see that its profit and revenue have both grown over the last three years.

View our latest analysis for Sopharma AD

Of course, when it comes to statutory profit, the devil is often in the detail, and we can get a better sense for a company by diving deeper into the financial statements. Therefore, we think it's worth taking a closer look at Sopharma AD's cashflow, as well as examining the impact that unusual items have had on its reported profit. That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.

Examining Cashflow Against Sopharma AD's Earnings

One key financial ratio used to measure how well a company converts its profit to free cash flow (FCF) is the accrual ratio. To get the accrual ratio we first subtract FCF from profit for a period, and then divide that number by the average operating assets for the period. This ratio tells us how much of a company's profit is not backed by free cashflow.

As a result, a negative accrual ratio is a positive for the company, and a positive accrual ratio is a negative. While it's not a problem to have a positive accrual ratio, indicating a certain level of non-cash profits, a high accrual ratio is arguably a bad thing, because it indicates paper profits are not matched by cash flow. That's because some academic studies have suggested that high accruals ratios tend to lead to lower profit or less profit growth.

Sopharma AD has an accrual ratio of 0.30 for the year to September 2020. We can therefore deduce that its free cash flow fell well short of covering its statutory profit, suggesting we might want to think twice before putting a lot of weight on the latter. Even though it reported a profit of лв79.5m, a look at free cash flow indicates it actually burnt through лв191m in the last year. Coming off the back of negative free cash flow last year, we imagine some shareholders might wonder if its cash burn of лв191m, this year, indicates high risk. However, that's not all there is to consider. The accrual ratio is reflecting the impact of unusual items on statutory profit, at least in part.

The Impact Of Unusual Items On Profit

Sopharma AD's profit suffered from unusual items, which reduced profit by лв14m in the last twelve months. In the case where this was a non-cash charge it would have made it easier to have high cash conversion, so it's surprising that the accrual ratio tells a different story. It's never great to see unusual items costing the company profits, but on the upside, things might improve sooner rather than later. When we analysed the vast majority of listed companies worldwide, we found that significant unusual items are often not repeated. And, after all, that's exactly what the accounting terminology implies. Assuming those unusual expenses don't come up again, we'd therefore expect Sopharma AD to produce a higher profit next year, all else being equal.

Our Take On Sopharma AD's Profit Performance

In conclusion, Sopharma AD's accrual ratio suggests that its statutory earnings are not backed by cash flow, even though unusual items weighed on profit. Given the contrasting considerations, we don't have a strong view as to whether Sopharma AD's profits are an apt reflection of its underlying potential for profit. In light of this, if you'd like to do more analysis on the company, it's vital to be informed of the risks involved. Our analysis shows 4 warning signs for Sopharma AD (3 are significant!) and we strongly recommend you look at these before investing.

Our examination of Sopharma AD has focussed on certain factors that can make its earnings look better than they are. But there is always more to discover if you are capable of focussing your mind on minutiae. Some people consider a high return on equity to be a good sign of a quality business. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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