We Wouldn't Rely On CBA Asset Management AD's (BUL:C81) Statutory Earnings As A Guide

By
Simply Wall St
Published
February 12, 2021
BUL:CBAM

Many investors consider it preferable to invest in profitable companies over unprofitable ones, because profitability suggests a business is sustainable. That said, the current statutory profit is not always a good guide to a company's underlying profitability. In this article, we'll look at how useful this year's statutory profit is, when analysing CBA Asset Management AD (BUL:C81).

We like the fact that CBA Asset Management AD made a profit of лв10.3m on its revenue of лв889.0k, in the last year. The chart below shows that revenue has improved over the last three years, and, even better, the company has moved from unprofitable to profitable.

See our latest analysis for CBA Asset Management AD

earnings-and-revenue-history
BUL:C81 Earnings and Revenue History February 12th 2021

Of course, when it comes to statutory profit, the devil is often in the detail, and we can get a better sense for a company by diving deeper into the financial statements. Therefore, we think it's worth taking a closer look at CBA Asset Management AD's cashflow, as well as examining the impact that unusual items have had on its reported profit. Note: we always recommend investors check balance sheet strength. Click here to be taken to our balance sheet analysis of CBA Asset Management AD.

A Closer Look At CBA Asset Management AD's Earnings

One key financial ratio used to measure how well a company converts its profit to free cash flow (FCF) is the accrual ratio. In plain english, this ratio subtracts FCF from net profit, and divides that number by the company's average operating assets over that period. This ratio tells us how much of a company's profit is not backed by free cashflow.

As a result, a negative accrual ratio is a positive for the company, and a positive accrual ratio is a negative. While having an accrual ratio above zero is of little concern, we do think it's worth noting when a company has a relatively high accrual ratio. Notably, there is some academic evidence that suggests that a high accrual ratio is a bad sign for near-term profits, generally speaking.

Over the twelve months to September 2020, CBA Asset Management AD recorded an accrual ratio of 0.69. That means it didn't generate anywhere near enough free cash flow to match its profit. Statistically speaking, that's a real negative for future earnings. Indeed, in the last twelve months it reported free cash flow of лв681k, which is significantly less than its profit of лв10.3m. At this point we should mention that CBA Asset Management AD did manage to increase its free cash flow in the last twelve months However, that's not all there is to consider. The accrual ratio is reflecting the impact of unusual items on statutory profit, at least in part. One positive for CBA Asset Management AD shareholders is that it's accrual ratio was significantly better last year, providing reason to believe that it may return to stronger cash conversion in the future. Shareholders should look for improved cashflow relative to profit in the current year, if that is indeed the case.

The Impact Of Unusual Items On Profit

The fact that the company had unusual items boosting profit by лв10.0m, in the last year, probably goes some way to explain why its accrual ratio was so weak. While it's always nice to have higher profit, a large contribution from unusual items sometimes dampens our enthusiasm. We ran the numbers on most publicly listed companies worldwide, and it's very common for unusual items to be once-off in nature. And that's as you'd expect, given these boosts are described as 'unusual'. CBA Asset Management AD had a rather significant contribution from unusual items relative to its profit to September 2020. All else being equal, this would likely have the effect of making the statutory profit a poor guide to underlying earnings power.

Our Take On CBA Asset Management AD's Profit Performance

Summing up, CBA Asset Management AD received a nice boost to profit from unusual items, but could not match its paper profit with free cash flow. On reflection, the above-mentioned factors give us the strong impression that CBA Asset Management AD'sunderlying earnings power is not as good as it might seem, based on the statutory profit numbers. With this in mind, we wouldn't consider investing in a stock unless we had a thorough understanding of the risks. For example - CBA Asset Management AD has 5 warning signs we think you should be aware of.

Our examination of CBA Asset Management AD has focussed on certain factors that can make its earnings look better than they are. And, on that basis, we are somewhat skeptical. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. Some people consider a high return on equity to be a good sign of a quality business. While it might take a little research on your behalf, you may find this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying to be useful.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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