Getting In Cheap On Elia Group SA/NV (EBR:ELI) Is Unlikely

With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 21x Elia Group SA/NV (EBR:ELI) may be sending bearish signals at the moment, given that almost half of all companies in Belgium have P/E ratios under 15x and even P/E's lower than 8x are not unusual. However, the P/E might be high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

There hasn't been much to differentiate Elia Group's and the market's retreating earnings lately. It might be that many expect the company's earnings to strengthen positively despite the tough market conditions, which has kept the P/E from falling. If not, then existing shareholders may be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.

Check out our latest analysis for Elia Group

Keen to find out how analysts think Elia Group's future stacks up against the industry? In that case, our free report is a great place to start.

Does Growth Match The High P/E?

Elia Group's P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver solid growth, and importantly, perform better than the market.

If we review the last year of earnings, dishearteningly the company's profits fell to the tune of 8.1%. That put a dampener on the good run it was having over the longer-term as its three-year EPS growth is still a noteworthy 21% in total. Although it's been a bumpy ride, it's still fair to say the earnings growth recently has been mostly respectable for the company.

Shifting to the future, estimates from the nine analysts covering the company suggest earnings should grow by 12% each year over the next three years. That's shaping up to be materially lower than the 18% per annum growth forecast for the broader market.

In light of this, it's alarming that Elia Group's P/E sits above the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than analysts indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as this level of earnings growth is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

The Final Word

It's argued the price-to-earnings ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.

Our examination of Elia Group's analyst forecasts revealed that its inferior earnings outlook isn't impacting its high P/E anywhere near as much as we would have predicted. When we see a weak earnings outlook with slower than market growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. Unless these conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

And what about other risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for Elia Group (of which 2 make us uncomfortable!) you should know about.

You might be able to find a better investment than Elia Group. If you want a selection of possible candidates, check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a low P/E (but have proven they can grow earnings).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com