UCB SA Just Beat Earnings Expectations: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

UCB SA (EBR:UCB) just released its half-yearly report and things are looking bullish. UCB beat earnings, with revenues hitting €2.8b, ahead of expectations, and statutory earnings per share outperforming analyst reckonings by a solid 14%. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on UCB after the latest results.

Check out our latest analysis for UCB

Taking into account the latest results, UCB's 20 analysts currently expect revenues in 2021 to be €5.56b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory per-share earnings are expected to be €4.87, roughly flat on the last 12 months. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of €5.54b and earnings per share (EPS) of €4.84 in 2021. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of €107, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on UCB, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at €135 and the most bearish at €87.00 per share. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the UCB's past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that UCB's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2021 expected to display 1.5% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 6.3% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 5.6% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than UCB.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply revenues will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for UCB going out to 2023, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You can also view our analysis of UCB's balance sheet, and whether we think UCB is carrying too much debt, for free on our platform here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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