ageas SA/NV's (EBR:AGS) Stock On An Uptrend: Could Fundamentals Be Driving The Momentum?

ageas (EBR:AGS) has had a great run on the share market with its stock up by a significant 19% over the last three months. We wonder if and what role the company's financials play in that price change as a company's long-term fundamentals usually dictate market outcomes. Particularly, we will be paying attention to ageas' ROE today.

Return on equity or ROE is a key measure used to assess how efficiently a company's management is utilizing the company's capital. Simply put, it is used to assess the profitability of a company in relation to its equity capital.

View our latest analysis for ageas

How Is ROE Calculated?

The formula for return on equity is:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for ageas is:

14% = €1.2b ÷ €8.5b (Based on the trailing twelve months to December 2023).

The 'return' is the profit over the last twelve months. So, this means that for every €1 of its shareholder's investments, the company generates a profit of €0.14.

What Is The Relationship Between ROE And Earnings Growth?

So far, we've learned that ROE is a measure of a company's profitability. We now need to evaluate how much profit the company reinvests or "retains" for future growth which then gives us an idea about the growth potential of the company. Assuming everything else remains unchanged, the higher the ROE and profit retention, the higher the growth rate of a company compared to companies that don't necessarily bear these characteristics.

ageas' Earnings Growth And 14% ROE

At first glance, ageas seems to have a decent ROE. And on comparing with the industry, we found that the the average industry ROE is similar at 12%. Despite this, ageas' five year net income growth was quite flat over the past five years. We reckon that there could be some other factors at play here that's limiting the company's growth. Such as, the company pays out a huge portion of its earnings as dividends, or is faced with competitive pressures.

As a next step, we compared ageas' net income growth with the industry and were disappointed to see that the company's growth is lower than the industry average growth of 2.1% in the same period.

Earnings growth is an important metric to consider when valuing a stock. The investor should try to establish if the expected growth or decline in earnings, whichever the case may be, is priced in. Doing so will help them establish if the stock's future looks promising or ominous. If you're wondering about ageas''s valuation, check out this gauge of its price-to-earnings ratio, as compared to its industry.

Is ageas Using Its Retained Earnings Effectively?

The high three-year median payout ratio of 63% (meaning, the company retains only 37% of profits) for ageas suggests that the company's earnings growth was miniscule as a result of paying out a majority of its earnings.

In addition, ageas has been paying dividends over a period of at least ten years suggesting that keeping up dividend payments is way more important to the management even if it comes at the cost of business growth. Our latest analyst data shows that the future payout ratio of the company over the next three years is expected to be approximately 52%. As a result, ageas' ROE is not expected to change by much either, which we inferred from the analyst estimate of 14% for future ROE.

Conclusion

Overall, we feel that ageas certainly does have some positive factors to consider. Although, we are disappointed to see a lack of growth in earnings even in spite of a high ROE. Bear in mind, the company reinvests a small portion of its profits, which means that investors aren't reaping the benefits of the high rate of return. That being so, the latest analyst forecasts show that the company will continue to see an expansion in its earnings. To know more about the latest analysts predictions for the company, check out this visualization of analyst forecasts for the company.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.