Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. As with many other companies Lotus Bakeries NV (EBR:LOTB) makes use of debt. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?
Why Does Debt Bring Risk?
Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.
View our latest analysis for Lotus Bakeries
How Much Debt Does Lotus Bakeries Carry?
As you can see below, at the end of December 2021, Lotus Bakeries had €223.9m of debt, up from €203.9m a year ago. Click the image for more detail. However, because it has a cash reserve of €132.2m, its net debt is less, at about €91.7m.
How Strong Is Lotus Bakeries' Balance Sheet?
The latest balance sheet data shows that Lotus Bakeries had liabilities of €183.1m due within a year, and liabilities of €289.5m falling due after that. On the other hand, it had cash of €132.2m and €110.4m worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by €230.0m.
Since publicly traded Lotus Bakeries shares are worth a total of €3.94b, it seems unlikely that this level of liabilities would be a major threat. Having said that, it's clear that we should continue to monitor its balance sheet, lest it change for the worse.
We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.
Lotus Bakeries has a low net debt to EBITDA ratio of only 0.65. And its EBIT covers its interest expense a whopping 44.9 times over. So you could argue it is no more threatened by its debt than an elephant is by a mouse. Also good is that Lotus Bakeries grew its EBIT at 12% over the last year, further increasing its ability to manage debt. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Lotus Bakeries can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. During the last three years, Lotus Bakeries produced sturdy free cash flow equating to 55% of its EBIT, about what we'd expect. This free cash flow puts the company in a good position to pay down debt, when appropriate.
Our View
The good news is that Lotus Bakeries's demonstrated ability to cover its interest expense with its EBIT delights us like a fluffy puppy does a toddler. And the good news does not stop there, as its net debt to EBITDA also supports that impression! Zooming out, Lotus Bakeries seems to use debt quite reasonably; and that gets the nod from us. While debt does bring risk, when used wisely it can also bring a higher return on equity. Over time, share prices tend to follow earnings per share, so if you're interested in Lotus Bakeries, you may well want to click here to check an interactive graph of its earnings per share history.
Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About ENXTBR:LOTB
Lotus Bakeries
Provides various snack products in Belgium and internationally.
Flawless balance sheet with solid track record.
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