Origin Energy Limited

CHIA:ORG Stock Report

Market Cap: AU$18.9b

Origin Energy Valuation

Is ORG undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of ORG when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: ORG (A$10.98) is trading below our estimate of fair value (A$13.97)

Significantly Below Fair Value: ORG is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for ORG?

Key metric: As ORG is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for ORG. This is calculated by dividing ORG's market cap by their current earnings.
What is ORG's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio13.5x
EarningsAU$1.40b
Market CapAU$18.90b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does ORG's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for ORG vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average15.3x
APA APA Group
9.5x-25.4%AU$9.3b
AGL AGL Energy
10.3x-2.3%AU$7.3b
EMA Emera
24.2x14.2%CA$15.2b
PNW Pinnacle West Capital
17.2x5.9%US$10.6b
ORG Origin Energy
13.5x-4.4%AU$18.9b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: ORG is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.5x) compared to the peer average (15.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does ORG's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Electric Utilities Industry?

9 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
ORG 13.5xIndustry Avg. 14.7xNo. of Companies28PE0816243240+
9 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: ORG is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.5x) compared to the Global Electric Utilities industry average (14.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is ORG's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

ORG PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio13.5x
Fair PE Ratio15.2x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: ORG is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.2x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst ORG forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentAU$10.98
AU$10.27
-6.5%
7.8%AU$11.75AU$8.86n/a11
Nov ’25AU$9.74
AU$10.27
+5.4%
7.8%AU$11.75AU$8.86n/a11
Oct ’25AU$10.18
AU$10.42
+2.3%
8.2%AU$11.65AU$8.86n/a11
Sep ’25AU$9.98
AU$10.18
+2.1%
10.7%AU$11.70AU$7.85n/a12
Aug ’25AU$10.58
AU$10.62
+0.4%
10.5%AU$12.10AU$7.85n/a12
Jul ’25AU$10.90
AU$10.44
-4.3%
11.1%AU$12.10AU$7.85n/a11
Jun ’25AU$10.19
AU$9.94
-2.4%
9.0%AU$11.00AU$7.85n/a10
May ’25AU$9.69
AU$9.65
-0.5%
8.3%AU$10.55AU$7.85n/a10
Apr ’25AU$9.19
AU$9.37
+2.0%
7.6%AU$10.50AU$7.85n/a10
Mar ’25AU$8.99
AU$9.21
+2.5%
8.6%AU$10.50AU$7.85n/a10
Feb ’25AU$8.45
AU$9.27
+9.7%
7.5%AU$10.50AU$8.07n/a7
Jan ’25AU$8.47
AU$9.03
+6.6%
8.3%AU$10.50AU$8.25n/a6
Dec ’24AU$8.19
AU$9.05
+10.5%
5.6%AU$9.75AU$8.25n/a5
Nov ’24AU$9.07
AU$9.16
+1.0%
3.9%AU$9.75AU$8.80AU$9.745
Oct ’24AU$8.75
AU$8.92
+2.0%
3.1%AU$9.39AU$8.55AU$10.185
Sep ’24AU$8.71
AU$8.85
+1.6%
1.9%AU$9.00AU$8.55AU$9.985
Aug ’24AU$8.46
AU$8.79
+3.9%
2.1%AU$9.00AU$8.48AU$10.585
Jul ’24AU$8.41
AU$8.36
-0.7%
11.8%AU$9.00AU$6.18AU$10.906
Jun ’24AU$8.35
AU$8.37
+0.2%
11.8%AU$9.00AU$6.18AU$10.196
May ’24AU$8.37
AU$8.43
+0.8%
11.1%AU$9.00AU$6.18AU$9.697
Apr ’24AU$8.29
AU$8.10
-2.3%
11.3%AU$9.00AU$6.18AU$9.197
Mar ’24AU$8.03
AU$7.71
-3.9%
11.7%AU$9.00AU$6.18AU$8.998
Feb ’24AU$7.38
AU$8.14
+10.2%
8.4%AU$9.00AU$7.19AU$8.458
Jan ’24AU$7.76
AU$7.81
+0.8%
12.4%AU$9.00AU$6.35AU$8.478
Dec ’23AU$7.95
AU$7.40
-6.9%
14.2%AU$9.00AU$6.00AU$8.198
Nov ’23AU$5.77
AU$6.51
+12.9%
10.3%AU$7.74AU$5.44AU$9.0713

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.

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