AGL Energy Limited

ASX:AGL Stock Report

Market Cap: AU$7.4b

AGL Energy Valuation

Is AGL undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of AGL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: AGL (A$10.78) is trading above our estimate of fair value (A$10.13)

Significantly Below Fair Value: AGL is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for AGL?

Key metric: As AGL is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for AGL. This is calculated by dividing AGL's market cap by their current earnings.
What is AGL's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio10.2x
EarningsAU$711.00m
Market CapAU$7.37b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does AGL's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for AGL vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average13.4x
TPC TPC Consolidated
20.2xn/aAU$108.9m
APA APA Group
9.4x-25.4%AU$9.2b
ORG Origin Energy
13.3x-4.4%AU$18.4b
QEWS Qatar Electricity & Water Company Q.P.S.C
10.5x2.7%ر.ق17.4b
AGL AGL Energy
10.2x-2.3%AU$7.3b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: AGL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.2x) compared to the peer average (13.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does AGL's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Integrated Utilities Industry?

1 CompanyPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
AGL 10.2xIndustry Avg. 17.2xNo. of Companies7PE0816243240+
1 CompanyEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: AGL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.2x) compared to the Global Integrated Utilities industry average (17.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is AGL's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

AGL PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio10.2x
Fair PE Ratio16x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: AGL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst AGL forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentAU$10.78
AU$11.89
+10.3%
4.9%AU$12.88AU$11.00n/a10
Nov ’25AU$10.53
AU$11.89
+13.0%
4.9%AU$12.88AU$11.00n/a10
Oct ’25AU$11.88
AU$12.12
+2.1%
6.3%AU$13.70AU$11.00n/a10
Sep ’25AU$11.61
AU$12.26
+5.6%
7.1%AU$13.75AU$11.00n/a11
Aug ’25AU$10.56
AU$11.39
+7.9%
9.5%AU$13.75AU$10.00n/a11
Jul ’25AU$10.68
AU$11.38
+6.5%
8.6%AU$13.25AU$10.00n/a10
Jun ’25AU$10.23
AU$11.35
+11.0%
9.3%AU$13.25AU$9.50n/a10
May ’25AU$9.45
AU$11.14
+17.9%
10.8%AU$13.25AU$9.18n/a10
Apr ’25AU$8.34
AU$11.27
+35.1%
10.1%AU$13.40AU$9.60n/a10
Mar ’25AU$8.66
AU$11.43
+32.0%
10.0%AU$13.40AU$9.60n/a10
Feb ’25AU$8.54
AU$11.69
+36.9%
10.9%AU$13.40AU$9.30n/a9
Jan ’25AU$9.48
AU$11.75
+23.9%
10.2%AU$14.00AU$9.75n/a10
Dec ’24AU$9.43
AU$11.86
+25.7%
9.9%AU$14.00AU$9.75n/a10
Nov ’24AU$10.77
AU$11.80
+9.5%
10.1%AU$14.00AU$9.75AU$10.5310
Oct ’24AU$10.73
AU$11.89
+10.8%
9.9%AU$14.00AU$9.75AU$11.8810
Sep ’24AU$11.04
AU$11.74
+6.3%
10.3%AU$14.00AU$9.75AU$11.6111
Aug ’24AU$12.28
AU$11.86
-3.4%
10.4%AU$14.30AU$10.00AU$10.5611
Jul ’24AU$10.81
AU$10.88
+0.6%
15.5%AU$13.24AU$6.80AU$10.6813
Jun ’24AU$9.21
AU$9.29
+0.8%
17.0%AU$12.80AU$6.80AU$10.2313
May ’24AU$8.55
AU$8.83
+3.2%
18.0%AU$12.80AU$6.80AU$9.4513
Apr ’24AU$8.05
AU$8.83
+9.6%
18.0%AU$12.80AU$6.80AU$8.3413
Mar ’24AU$6.88
AU$8.63
+25.4%
18.9%AU$12.80AU$6.80AU$8.6612
Feb ’24AU$7.64
AU$9.03
+18.2%
17.7%AU$12.80AU$6.80AU$8.5412
Jan ’24AU$8.07
AU$9.10
+12.8%
17.2%AU$12.80AU$6.80AU$9.4812
Dec ’23AU$8.08
AU$8.90
+10.1%
18.2%AU$12.80AU$6.80AU$9.4311
Nov ’23AU$7.12
AU$8.85
+24.3%
18.5%AU$12.80AU$6.80AU$10.7711

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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