Alliance Aviation Services Limited

CHIA:AQZ Stock Report

Market Cap: AU$418.0m

Alliance Aviation Services Valuation

Is AQZ undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

6/6

Valuation Score 6/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of AQZ when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: AQZ (A$2.61) is trading below our estimate of fair value (A$36.6)

Significantly Below Fair Value: AQZ is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for AQZ?

Key metric: As AQZ is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for AQZ. This is calculated by dividing AQZ's market cap by their current earnings.
What is AQZ's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio6.9x
EarningsAU$60.45m
Market CapAU$417.95m

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does AQZ's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for AQZ vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average9.7x
REX Regional Express Holdings
2.3xn/aAU$64.5m
QAN Qantas Airways
10.5x9.8%AU$13.3b
LAU Lindsay Australia
10.2x12.6%AU$275.5m
KSC K&S
15.6xn/aAU$494.0m
AQZ Alliance Aviation Services
6.9x12.9%AU$418.0m

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: AQZ is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6.9x) compared to the peer average (9.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does AQZ's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Airlines Industry?

5 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
AQZ 6.9xIndustry Avg. 10.4xNo. of Companies10PE0816243240+
5 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: AQZ is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6.9x) compared to the Global Airlines industry average (10.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is AQZ's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

AQZ PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio6.9x
Fair PE Ratio12.3x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: AQZ is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6.9x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.3x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst AQZ forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentAU$2.61
AU$4.14
+58.7%
1.4%AU$4.22AU$4.10n/a3
Nov ’25AU$2.65
AU$4.14
+56.3%
1.4%AU$4.22AU$4.10n/a3
Oct ’25AU$3.01
AU$4.30
+43.0%
6.6%AU$4.79AU$4.10n/a4
Sep ’25AU$2.89
AU$4.30
+48.9%
6.6%AU$4.79AU$4.10n/a4
Aug ’25AU$3.13
AU$4.61
+47.3%
3.6%AU$4.79AU$4.41n/a4
Jul ’25AU$3.09
AU$4.61
+49.2%
3.6%AU$4.79AU$4.41n/a4
Jun ’25AU$3.19
AU$4.59
+43.8%
4.1%AU$4.79AU$4.35n/a4
May ’25AU$3.12
AU$4.59
+47.1%
4.1%AU$4.79AU$4.35n/a4
Apr ’25AU$2.92
AU$4.56
+56.1%
4.6%AU$4.79AU$4.35n/a4
Mar ’25AU$2.94
AU$4.53
+54.0%
3.7%AU$4.75AU$4.35n/a3
Feb ’25AU$3.21
AU$4.61
+43.9%
9.5%AU$5.20AU$4.14n/a3
Jan ’25AU$3.22
AU$4.61
+43.3%
9.5%AU$5.20AU$4.14n/a3
Dec ’24AU$2.86
AU$4.55
+58.9%
11.4%AU$5.20AU$3.94n/a3
Nov ’24AU$2.99
AU$4.55
+52.0%
11.4%AU$5.20AU$3.94AU$2.653
Oct ’24n/a
AU$4.55
0%
11.4%AU$5.20AU$3.94AU$3.013
Sep ’24AU$3.19
AU$4.55
+42.5%
11.4%AU$5.20AU$3.94AU$2.893
Aug ’24AU$3.32
AU$4.58
+38.1%
10.4%AU$5.20AU$3.88AU$3.134
Jul ’24AU$2.90
AU$4.32
+48.9%
11.7%AU$4.75AU$3.47AU$3.094
Jun ’24AU$3.07
AU$4.32
+40.7%
11.7%AU$4.75AU$3.47AU$3.194
May ’24AU$3.08
AU$4.32
+40.2%
11.7%AU$4.75AU$3.47AU$3.124
Apr ’24AU$3.44
AU$4.32
+25.5%
11.7%AU$4.75AU$3.47AU$2.924
Mar ’24AU$3.54
AU$4.32
+22.0%
11.7%AU$4.75AU$3.47AU$2.944
Feb ’24AU$3.36
AU$4.30
+27.8%
11.9%AU$4.75AU$3.43AU$3.214
Jan ’24AU$3.03
AU$4.30
+41.8%
11.9%AU$4.75AU$3.43AU$3.224
Dec ’23AU$3.02
AU$4.30
+42.2%
11.9%AU$4.75AU$3.43AU$2.864
Nov ’23AU$3.12
AU$4.30
+37.7%
11.9%AU$4.75AU$3.43AU$2.994

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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