Alliance Aviation Services Future Growth

Future criteria checks 3/6

Alliance Aviation Services is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 12.9% and 9.1% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 12.9% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 14.9% in 3 years.

Key information

12.9%

Earnings growth rate

12.9%

EPS growth rate

Airlines earnings growth	17.0%
Revenue growth rate	9.1%
Future return on equity	14.9%
Analyst coverage	Low
Last updated	10 Oct 2024

Recent future growth updates

Recent updates

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

CHIA:AQZ - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (AUD Millions)
Date	Revenue	Earnings	Free Cash Flow	Cash from Op	Avg. No. Analysts
6/30/2027	850	88	99	179	2
6/30/2026	810	76	-11	161	2
6/30/2025	728	65	-122	102	2
6/30/2024	646	60	-90	25	N/A
3/31/2024	615	58	-73	27	N/A
12/31/2023	583	56	-55	29	N/A
9/30/2023	551	46	-56	35	N/A
6/30/2023	518	36	-56	41	N/A
3/31/2023	479	21	-50	45	N/A
12/31/2022	439	5	-45	49	N/A
9/30/2022	405	0	-46	51	N/A
6/30/2022	371	-5	-47	52	N/A
3/31/2022	348	0	-96	36	N/A
12/31/2021	325	6	-145	19	N/A
9/30/2021	317	19	-156	30	N/A
6/30/2021	309	33	-166	40	N/A
3/31/2021	305	36	-101	58	N/A
12/31/2020	302	40	-35	77	N/A
9/30/2020	300	33	-11	60	N/A
6/30/2020	299	27	13	44	N/A
3/31/2020	295	25	6	37	N/A
12/31/2019	291	24	-2	29	N/A
9/30/2019	284	23	7	33	N/A
6/30/2019	277	23	15	37	N/A
3/31/2019	273	22	18	38	N/A
12/31/2018	268	21	21	39	N/A
9/30/2018	258	19	22	39	N/A
6/30/2018	248	18	23	38	N/A
3/31/2018	232	18	N/A	32	N/A
12/31/2017	216	17	N/A	26	N/A
9/30/2017	209	18	N/A	24	N/A
6/30/2017	201	19	N/A	22	N/A
3/31/2017	196	18	N/A	25	N/A
12/31/2016	191	17	N/A	28	N/A
9/30/2016	187	15	N/A	27	N/A
6/30/2016	183	13	N/A	25	N/A
3/31/2016	186	4	N/A	15	N/A
12/31/2015	189	-6	N/A	5	N/A
9/30/2015	194	-21	N/A	8	N/A
6/30/2015	199	-37	N/A	12	N/A
3/31/2015	199	-29	N/A	22	N/A
12/31/2014	199	-22	N/A	33	N/A
9/30/2014	200	-6	N/A	31	N/A
6/30/2014	200	10	N/A	29	N/A
3/31/2014	206	15	N/A	32	N/A
12/31/2013	213	19	N/A	34	N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: AQZ's forecast earnings growth (12.9% per year) is above the savings rate (2.6%).

Earnings vs Market: AQZ's earnings (12.9% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the Australian market (12.4% per year).

High Growth Earnings: AQZ's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: AQZ's revenue (9.1% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the Australian market (5.7% per year).

High Growth Revenue: AQZ's revenue (9.1% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: AQZ's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (14.9%).

Alliance Aviation Services Future Growth

Future criteria checks 3/6

Key information

Recent future growth updates

Alliance Aviation Services Limited Provides Unaudited Financial Guidance for the Fiscal Year 2022

Recent updates

Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 15%

MD & Executive Director recently bought AU$53k worth of stock

New major risk - Earnings quality

Full year 2024 earnings released: EPS: AU$0.38 (vs AU$0.23 in FY 2023)

Alliance Aviation Services Limited Announces the Appointment of James Jackson and Mark Stanton as Non-Executive Directors

Alliance Aviation Services Limited Announces Chief Financial Officer Changes

Alliance Aviation Services Limited, Annual General Meeting, Sep 24, 2024

Alliance Aviation Services Limited to Report Fiscal Year 2024 Results on Aug 14, 2024

Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 17%

First half 2024 earnings released: EPS: AU$0.16 (vs AU$0.041 in 1H 2023)

Insufficient new directors

Qantas Airways Limited (ASX:QAN) cancelled the acquisition of remaining 80% stake in Alliance Aviation Services Limited (ASX:AQZ).

Qantas Airways Limited (ASX:QAN) cancelled the acquisition of remaining 80% stake in Alliance Aviation Services Limited (ASX:AQZ).

Alliance Aviation Services Limited, Annual General Meeting, Nov 28, 2023

New major risk - Financial position

Full year 2023 earnings released

Alliance Aviation Services Limited to Report Fiscal Year 2023 Results on Aug 09, 2023

Insufficient new directors

Alliance Aviation Services Limited, Annual General Meeting, Oct 11, 2022

Full year 2022 earnings released: AU$0.032 loss per share (vs AU$0.21 profit in FY 2021)

Alliance Aviation Services Limited Provides Unaudited Financial Guidance for the Fiscal Year 2022

Alliance Aviation Services Limited Announces Resignation of Lee Schofield as Executive Director

Qantas Airways Limited (ASX:QAN) entered into a scheme implementation deed to acquire remaining 80% stake in Alliance Aviation Services Limited (ASX:AQZ) for approximately AUD 610 million.

Less than half of directors are independent

First half 2022 earnings: EPS in line with expectations, revenues disappoint

MD & Executive Director recently bought AU$200k worth of stock

Full year 2021 earnings released: EPS AU$0.21 (vs AU$0.17 in FY 2020)

MD & Executive Director recently sold AU$2.2m worth of stock

New 90-day high: AU$4.39

Revenue beats expectations

First half 2021 earnings released: EPS AU$0.15 (vs AU$0.085 in 1H 2020)

Alliance Signs E190 Capacity Deal with QANTAS

New 90-day high: AU$4.32

Alliance Executes Contract Extension with Newmont Mining Services Pty Ltd

New 90-day high: AU$4.03

New 90-day high: AU$3.75

Alliance Aviation Services Limited (ASX:AQZ) signed a share sale and purchase agreement to acquire Toll Aviation Engineering Pty Ltd from Toll Holdings Limited.

New 90-day high: AU$3.71

New 90-day high - AU$3.63

Full year earnings released

Alliance Aviation Services Limited Omits to Pay Final Dividend for the Year Ended 30 June 2020

Alliance Aviation Services Limited to Report Fiscal Year 2020 Results on Aug 05, 2020

New 90-day high - AU$3.18

Alliance Aviation Services Limited has completed a Follow-on Equity Offering in the amount of AUD 3.971747 million.

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

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