Stock Analysis

NOVONIX (ASX:NVX shareholders incur further losses as stock declines 11% this week, taking three-year losses to 83%

ASX:NVX
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As every investor would know, not every swing hits the sweet spot. But you have a problem if you face massive losses more than once in a while. So spare a thought for the long term shareholders of NOVONIX Limited (ASX:NVX); the share price is down a whopping 83% in the last three years. That would be a disturbing experience. And the ride hasn't got any smoother in recent times over the last year, with the price 69% lower in that time. The falls have accelerated recently, with the share price down 24% in the last three months. We really hope anyone holding through that price crash has a diversified portfolio. Even when you lose money, you don't have to lose the lesson.

If the past week is anything to go by, investor sentiment for NOVONIX isn't positive, so let's see if there's a mismatch between fundamentals and the share price.

View our latest analysis for NOVONIX

Because NOVONIX made a loss in the last twelve months, we think the market is probably more focussed on revenue and revenue growth, at least for now. Generally speaking, companies without profits are expected to grow revenue every year, and at a good clip. That's because fast revenue growth can be easily extrapolated to forecast profits, often of considerable size.

In the last three years, NOVONIX saw its revenue grow by 28% per year, compound. That is faster than most pre-profit companies. So why has the share priced crashed 22% per year, in the same time? The share price makes us wonder if there is an issue with profitability. Sometimes fast revenue growth doesn't lead to profits. Unless the balance sheet is strong, the company might have to raise capital.

You can see how earnings and revenue have changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
ASX:NVX Earnings and Revenue Growth January 25th 2024

We like that insiders have been buying shares in the last twelve months. Even so, future earnings will be far more important to whether current shareholders make money. This free interactive report on NOVONIX's earnings, revenue and cash flow is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.

A Different Perspective

While the broader market gained around 5.3% in the last year, NOVONIX shareholders lost 69%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 8%, each year, over five years. If the fundamental data continues to indicate long term sustainable growth, the current sell-off could be an opportunity worth considering. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand NOVONIX better, we need to consider many other factors. Take risks, for example - NOVONIX has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.

NOVONIX is not the only stock that insiders are buying. For those who like to find winning investments this free list of growing companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Australian exchanges.

Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.

Discover if NOVONIX might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.