Codan Limited's (ASX:CDA) Price Is Out Of Tune With Earnings

With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 27.6x Codan Limited (ASX:CDA) may be sending bearish signals at the moment, given that almost half of all companies in Australia have P/E ratios under 19x and even P/E's lower than 10x are not unusual. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/E at face value as there may be an explanation why it's as high as it is.

While the market has experienced earnings growth lately, Codan's earnings have gone into reverse gear, which is not great. It might be that many expect the dour earnings performance to recover substantially, which has kept the P/E from collapsing. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

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Does Growth Match The High P/E?

Codan's P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver solid growth, and importantly, perform better than the market.

Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 8.3%. At least EPS has managed not to go completely backwards from three years ago in aggregate, thanks to the earlier period of growth. Therefore, it's fair to say that earnings growth has been inconsistent recently for the company.

Turning to the outlook, the next three years should generate growth of 17% per annum as estimated by the four analysts watching the company. With the market predicted to deliver 17% growth per annum, the company is positioned for a comparable earnings result.

With this information, we find it interesting that Codan is trading at a high P/E compared to the market. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly average growth expectations and are willing to pay up for exposure to the stock. These shareholders may be setting themselves up for disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with the growth outlook.

The Final Word

Using the price-to-earnings ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.

Our examination of Codan's analyst forecasts revealed that its market-matching earnings outlook isn't impacting its high P/E as much as we would have predicted. Right now we are uncomfortable with the relatively high share price as the predicted future earnings aren't likely to support such positive sentiment for long. Unless these conditions improve, it's challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

A lot of potential risks can sit within a company's balance sheet. Our free balance sheet analysis for Codan with six simple checks will allow you to discover any risks that could be an issue.

Of course, you might also be able to find a better stock than Codan. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.