Did The Underlying Business Drive NEXTDC's (ASX:NXT) Lovely 379% Share Price Gain?

For many, the main point of investing in the stock market is to achieve spectacular returns. And highest quality companies can see their share prices grow by huge amounts. Don't believe it? Then look at the NEXTDC Limited (ASX:NXT) share price. It's 379% higher than it was five years ago. This just goes to show the value creation that some businesses can achieve. But it's down 6.2% in the last week.

Check out our latest analysis for NEXTDC

NEXTDC isn't currently profitable, so most analysts would look to revenue growth to get an idea of how fast the underlying business is growing. Generally speaking, companies without profits are expected to grow revenue every year, and at a good clip. That's because it's hard to be confident a company will be sustainable if revenue growth is negligible, and it never makes a profit.

For the last half decade, NEXTDC can boast revenue growth at a rate of 21% per year. Even measured against other revenue-focussed companies, that's a good result. Fortunately, the market has not missed this, and has pushed the share price up by 37% per year in that time. It's never too late to start following a top notch stock like NEXTDC, since some long term winners go on winning for decades. On the face of it, this looks lke a good opportunity, although we note sentiment seems very positive already.

The graphic below depicts how earnings and revenue have changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

We consider it positive that insiders have made significant purchases in the last year. Having said that, most people consider earnings and revenue growth trends to be a more meaningful guide to the business. So it makes a lot of sense to check out what analysts think NEXTDC will earn in the future (free profit forecasts).

What about the Total Shareholder Return (TSR)?

Investors should note that there's a difference between NEXTDC's total shareholder return (TSR) and its share price change, which we've covered above. The TSR attempts to capture the value of dividends (as if they were reinvested) as well as any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings offered to shareholders. We note that NEXTDC's TSR, at 385% is higher than its share price return of 379%. When you consider it hasn't been paying a dividend, this data suggests shareholders have benefitted from a spin-off, or had the opportunity to acquire attractively priced shares in a discounted capital raising.

A Different Perspective

We're pleased to report that NEXTDC shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 50% over one year. That gain is better than the annual TSR over five years, which is 37%. Therefore it seems like sentiment around the company has been positive lately. Someone with an optimistic perspective could view the recent improvement in TSR as indicating that the business itself is getting better with time. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with NEXTDC , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

There are plenty of other companies that have insiders buying up shares. You probably do not want to miss this free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on AU exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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