Don't Buy Wesfarmers Limited (ASX:WES) For Its Next Dividend Without Doing These Checks

Readers hoping to buy Wesfarmers Limited (ASX:WES) for its dividend will need to make their move shortly, as the stock is about to trade ex-dividend. The ex-dividend date occurs one day before the record date which is the day on which shareholders need to be on the company's books in order to receive a dividend. The ex-dividend date is an important date to be aware of as any purchase of the stock made on or after this date might mean a late settlement that doesn't show on the record date. Meaning, you will need to purchase Wesfarmers' shares before the 20th of February to receive the dividend, which will be paid on the 28th of March.

The company's next dividend payment will be AU$0.88 per share. Last year, in total, the company distributed AU$1.80 to shareholders. Calculating the last year's worth of payments shows that Wesfarmers has a trailing yield of 3.5% on the current share price of A$51.09. Dividends are a major contributor to investment returns for long term holders, but only if the dividend continues to be paid. We need to see whether the dividend is covered by earnings and if it's growing.

View our latest analysis for Wesfarmers

If a company pays out more in dividends than it earned, then the dividend might become unsustainable - hardly an ideal situation. Its dividend payout ratio is 84% of profit, which means the company is paying out a majority of its earnings. The relatively limited profit reinvestment could slow the rate of future earnings growth. It could become a concern if earnings started to decline. Yet cash flows are even more important than profits for assessing a dividend, so we need to see if the company generated enough cash to pay its distribution. Over the past year it paid out 138% of its free cash flow as dividends, which is uncomfortably high. We're curious about why the company paid out more cash than it generated last year, since this can be one of the early signs that a dividend may be unsustainable.

While Wesfarmers's dividends were covered by the company's reported profits, cash is somewhat more important, so it's not great to see that the company didn't generate enough cash to pay its dividend. Were this to happen repeatedly, this would be a risk to Wesfarmers's ability to maintain its dividend.

Click here to see the company's payout ratio, plus analyst estimates of its future dividends.

Have Earnings And Dividends Been Growing?

Companies that aren't growing their earnings can still be valuable, but it is even more important to assess the sustainability of the dividend if it looks like the company will struggle to grow. If business enters a downturn and the dividend is cut, the company could see its value fall precipitously. It's not encouraging to see that Wesfarmers's earnings are effectively flat over the past five years. It's better than seeing them drop, certainly, but over the long term, all of the best dividend stocks are able to meaningfully grow their earnings per share.

Many investors will assess a company's dividend performance by evaluating how much the dividend payments have changed over time. Wesfarmers has delivered an average of 0.6% per year annual increase in its dividend, based on the past 10 years of dividend payments.

Final Takeaway

From a dividend perspective, should investors buy or avoid Wesfarmers? It's not great to see earnings per share have been flat and that the company paid out an uncomfortably high percentage of its cash flow over the past year. Cash flows are typically more volatile than earnings, but this is still not what we like to see. It's not an attractive combination from a dividend perspective, and we're inclined to pass on this one for the time being.

With that being said, if you're still considering Wesfarmers as an investment, you'll find it beneficial to know what risks this stock is facing. In terms of investment risks, we've identified 2 warning signs with Wesfarmers and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

If you're in the market for strong dividend payers, we recommend checking our selection of top dividend stocks.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.