Super Retail Group Limited (ASX:SUL) Just Reported And Analysts Have Been Lifting Their Price Targets

Shareholders of Super Retail Group Limited (ASX:SUL) will be pleased this week, given that the stock price is up 11% to AU$17.70 following its latest full-year results. Super Retail Group reported in line with analyst predictions, delivering revenues of AU$3.9b and statutory earnings per share of AU$1.06, suggesting the business is executing well and in line with its plan. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

See our latest analysis for Super Retail Group

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Super Retail Group's 15 analysts is for revenues of AU$4.06b in 2025. This would reflect a modest 4.3% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory per share are forecast to be AU$1.07, approximately in line with the last 12 months. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of AU$4.03b and earnings per share (EPS) of AU$1.04 in 2025. The analysts seems to have become more bullish on the business, judging by their new earnings per share estimates.

The consensus price target rose 7.0% to AU$16.15, suggesting that higher earnings estimates flow through to the stock's valuation as well. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Super Retail Group at AU$19.79 per share, while the most bearish prices it at AU$11.00. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Super Retail Group's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 4.3% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 8.0% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 6.7% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Super Retail Group.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Super Retail Group's earnings potential next year. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Super Retail Group. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Super Retail Group going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Before you take the next step you should know about the 1 warning sign for Super Retail Group that we have uncovered.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.