Today we'll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of MotorCycle Holdings Limited (ASX:MTO) as an investment opportunity by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them to today's value. Our analysis will employ the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Before you think you won't be able to understand it, just read on! It's actually much less complex than you'd imagine.
Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you.
We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate
|Levered FCF (A$, Millions)||AU$20.7m||AU$16.8m||AU$20.4m||AU$17.8m||AU$16.3m||AU$15.5m||AU$15.0m||AU$14.8m||AU$14.7m||AU$14.8m|
|Growth Rate Estimate Source||Analyst x2||Analyst x2||Analyst x2||Est @ -12.65%||Est @ -8.25%||Est @ -5.17%||Est @ -3.02%||Est @ -1.51%||Est @ -0.45%||Est @ 0.29%|
|Present Value (A$, Millions) Discounted @ 9.9%||AU$18.8||AU$13.9||AU$15.4||AU$12.2||AU$10.2||AU$8.8||AU$7.8||AU$7.0||AU$6.3||AU$5.8|
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = AU$106m
After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.0%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 9.9%.
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2030 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = AU$15m× (1 + 2.0%) ÷ (9.9%– 2.0%) = AU$192m
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= AU$192m÷ ( 1 + 9.9%)10= AU$75m
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is AU$181m. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of AU$2.6, the company appears about fair value at a 10.0% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.
The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at MotorCycle Holdings as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 9.9%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.502. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. For MotorCycle Holdings, we've put together three relevant factors you should further examine:
- Risks: Case in point, we've spotted 1 warning sign for MotorCycle Holdings you should be aware of.
- Management:Have insiders been ramping up their shares to take advantage of the market's sentiment for MTO's future outlook? Check out our management and board analysis with insights on CEO compensation and governance factors.
- Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Australian stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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