Stock Analysis

The Returns At Harvey Norman Holdings (ASX:HVN) Aren't Growing

ASX:HVN
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If you're looking for a multi-bagger, there's a few things to keep an eye out for. Amongst other things, we'll want to see two things; firstly, a growing return on capital employed (ROCE) and secondly, an expansion in the company's amount of capital employed. Put simply, these types of businesses are compounding machines, meaning they are continually reinvesting their earnings at ever-higher rates of return. So, when we ran our eye over Harvey Norman Holdings' (ASX:HVN) trend of ROCE, we liked what we saw.

Return On Capital Employed (ROCE): What Is It?

For those that aren't sure what ROCE is, it measures the amount of pre-tax profits a company can generate from the capital employed in its business. Analysts use this formula to calculate it for Harvey Norman Holdings:

Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)

0.14 = AU$982m ÷ (AU$7.8b - AU$876m) (Based on the trailing twelve months to December 2022).

Therefore, Harvey Norman Holdings has an ROCE of 14%. In absolute terms, that's a pretty normal return, and it's somewhat close to the Multiline Retail industry average of 12%.

Check out our latest analysis for Harvey Norman Holdings

roce
ASX:HVN Return on Capital Employed April 7th 2023

In the above chart we have measured Harvey Norman Holdings' prior ROCE against its prior performance, but the future is arguably more important. If you'd like, you can check out the forecasts from the analysts covering Harvey Norman Holdings here for free.

SWOT Analysis for Harvey Norman Holdings

Strength
  • Debt is not viewed as a risk.
  • Dividend is in the top 25% of dividend payers in the market.
Weakness
  • Earnings declined over the past year.
Opportunity
  • Annual revenue is forecast to grow faster than the Australian market.
  • Good value based on P/E ratio and estimated fair value.
  • Significant insider buying over the past 3 months.
Threat
  • Dividends are not covered by cash flow.
  • Annual earnings are forecast to decline for the next 3 years.

What The Trend Of ROCE Can Tell Us

While the current returns on capital are decent, they haven't changed much. The company has employed 91% more capital in the last five years, and the returns on that capital have remained stable at 14%. Since 14% is a moderate ROCE though, it's good to see a business can continue to reinvest at these decent rates of return. Stable returns in this ballpark can be unexciting, but if they can be maintained over the long run, they often provide nice rewards to shareholders.

The Key Takeaway

To sum it up, Harvey Norman Holdings has simply been reinvesting capital steadily, at those decent rates of return. And since the stock has risen strongly over the last five years, it appears the market might expect this trend to continue. So while investors seem to be recognizing these promising trends, we still believe the stock deserves further research.

On a final note, we found 2 warning signs for Harvey Norman Holdings (1 makes us a bit uncomfortable) you should be aware of.

If you want to search for solid companies with great earnings, check out this free list of companies with good balance sheets and impressive returns on equity.

Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.

Discover if Harvey Norman Holdings might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.