Stock Analysis

Returns On Capital At Harvey Norman Holdings (ASX:HVN) Have Stalled

ASX:HVN
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What trends should we look for it we want to identify stocks that can multiply in value over the long term? Firstly, we'd want to identify a growing return on capital employed (ROCE) and then alongside that, an ever-increasing base of capital employed. Put simply, these types of businesses are compounding machines, meaning they are continually reinvesting their earnings at ever-higher rates of return. That's why when we briefly looked at Harvey Norman Holdings' (ASX:HVN) ROCE trend, we were pretty happy with what we saw.

Return On Capital Employed (ROCE): What Is It?

Just to clarify if you're unsure, ROCE is a metric for evaluating how much pre-tax income (in percentage terms) a company earns on the capital invested in its business. Analysts use this formula to calculate it for Harvey Norman Holdings:

Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)

0.14 = AU$982m ÷ (AU$7.8b - AU$876m) (Based on the trailing twelve months to December 2022).

So, Harvey Norman Holdings has an ROCE of 14%. That's a relatively normal return on capital, and it's around the 12% generated by the Multiline Retail industry.

Check out our latest analysis for Harvey Norman Holdings

roce
ASX:HVN Return on Capital Employed July 10th 2023

In the above chart we have measured Harvey Norman Holdings' prior ROCE against its prior performance, but the future is arguably more important. If you'd like to see what analysts are forecasting going forward, you should check out our free report for Harvey Norman Holdings.

SWOT Analysis for Harvey Norman Holdings

Strength
  • Debt is not viewed as a risk.
  • Dividend is in the top 25% of dividend payers in the market.
Weakness
  • Earnings declined over the past year.
Opportunity
  • Annual revenue is forecast to grow faster than the Australian market.
  • Good value based on P/E ratio and estimated fair value.
Threat
  • Dividends are not covered by cash flow.
  • Annual earnings are forecast to decline for the next 4 years.

What The Trend Of ROCE Can Tell Us

While the current returns on capital are decent, they haven't changed much. The company has consistently earned 14% for the last five years, and the capital employed within the business has risen 91% in that time. 14% is a pretty standard return, and it provides some comfort knowing that Harvey Norman Holdings has consistently earned this amount. Stable returns in this ballpark can be unexciting, but if they can be maintained over the long run, they often provide nice rewards to shareholders.

In Conclusion...

In the end, Harvey Norman Holdings has proven its ability to adequately reinvest capital at good rates of return. Therefore it's no surprise that shareholders have earned a respectable 48% return if they held over the last five years. So while investors seem to be recognizing these promising trends, we still believe the stock deserves further research.

If you'd like to know more about Harvey Norman Holdings, we've spotted 2 warning signs, and 1 of them is concerning.

While Harvey Norman Holdings isn't earning the highest return, check out this free list of companies that are earning high returns on equity with solid balance sheets.

Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.

Discover if Harvey Norman Holdings might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.