Bapcor Limited

ASX:BAP Stock Report

Market Cap: AU$383.5m

Bapcor Future Growth

Future criteria checks 3/6

Bapcor is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 82.8% and 2.4% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 89.5% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 4.3% in 3 years.

Key information

82.8%

Earnings growth rate

89.51%

EPS growth rate

Retail Distributors earnings growth18.2%
Revenue growth rate2.4%
Future return on equity4.33%
Analyst coverage

Good

Last updated21 Apr 2026

Recent future growth updates

Recent updates

Narrative Update • May 02

BAP: Equity Raise And Refreshed P/E Assumptions Will Support Future Upside

Analysts have trimmed their Bapcor price target from A$1.83 to A$1.46, reflecting updated views on fair value, discount rates, revenue growth, profit margins and future P/E assumptions. Analyst Commentary Bullish Takeaways Bullish analysts highlight that even with a trimmed A$1.46 price target, updated assumptions on revenue, margins and P/E still support a valuation that they see as aligned with company execution priorities.
Narrative Update • Apr 18

BAP: Future Returns Will Benefit From Rebased Expectations And Higher Required Return

Analysts have adjusted their price target on Bapcor to A$0.97 from A$3.21, reflecting updated views on discount rates, revenue growth assumptions, profit margins, and a lower future P/E multiple. Analyst Commentary Bullish Takeaways Bullish analysts point to the magnitude of the A$0.97 target reset from A$3.21 as a sign that key valuation inputs such as discount rates and future P/E assumptions are now more conservative, which can reduce the risk of further major downgrades if execution stays on track.
Narrative Update • Apr 03

BAP: Higher Risk Inputs Will Pressure Future Earnings And Multiples

Analysts have trimmed their fair value estimate for Bapcor from A$1.85 to A$0.42, reflecting updated assumptions on the discount rate, revenue growth, profit margins and future P/E multiples. Analyst Commentary Bearish analysts are using the reduced fair value to highlight that expectations around Bapcor’s earnings power and valuation multiples may have been too optimistic.
Narrative Update • Mar 20

BAP: Equity Raise And Tighter Margins Will Still Support Future Upside

Analysts have adjusted their fair value estimate for Bapcor from A$3.57 to A$1.83, reflecting updated views on discount rates, profit margins, and future P/E assumptions. Analyst Commentary Recent valuation work on Bapcor reflects a more cautious stance, with the fair value estimate adjusted to A$1.83.
Narrative Update • Mar 05

BAP: Higher Required Return And Lower P/E Will Still Support Upside

Analysts have trimmed their Bapcor valuation, cutting the implied fair value from A$4.07 to A$3.57 as they factor in a higher discount rate, slightly stronger revenue growth and margins, and a lower assumed future P/E multiple. Analyst Commentary Bullish Takeaways Bullish analysts point to higher price targets in other sectors, such as the recent large upward reset at JPMorgan, as a signal that the market is still willing to pay up for companies where the risk and growth trade off is seen as acceptable.
Narrative Update • Feb 19

BAP: Weaker Guidance And Index Changes Will Shape Future Risk Reward Balance

Analysts have made a slight adjustment to their A$ price target on Bapcor, reflecting modest changes to assumptions around the discount rate, revenue growth, profit margins and future P/E, while keeping fair value steady at A$1.85. Analyst Commentary Recent adjustments to fair value and assumptions around discount rates, revenue, margins and P/E reflect a more cautious tone from some on the Street, even with the A$1.85 fair value kept unchanged.
Narrative Update • Feb 05

BAP: Weaker Guidance And Index Removal Will Shape Risk Reward Balance

Narrative Update on Bapcor The updated analyst price target for Bapcor reflects a modest adjustment, as analysts factor in a slightly higher discount rate alongside less severe revenue contraction, a small improvement in profit margin, and a marginally lower future P/E outlook. Analyst Commentary Recent commentary on Bapcor from bearish analysts has focused on how valuation assumptions intersect with execution and growth risks, particularly as expectations around revenue and margins are being recalibrated alongside a higher discount rate.
Narrative Update • Jan 22

BAP: Future P/E Reassessment Will Support Returns Despite Softer Earnings Guidance

Analysts have trimmed their price target on Bapcor to A$4.07 from A$4.35, citing updated assumptions around fair value, discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin and future P/E multiples. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts looking at the broader sector are pointing to recent positive moves in price targets as a sign that investors are still willing to pay up for companies they see as executing well and priced reasonably on earnings.
Narrative Update • Jan 07

BAP: Weaker Earnings Guidance And Index Removal Will Pressure Shares

Analysts have reduced their price target on Bapcor from A$2.95 to A$1.85, citing updated assumptions for discount rates, revenue growth, profit margins and future P/E that point to a lower fair value estimate. Analyst Commentary Bearish analysts point to the cut in Bapcor's price target to A$1.85 as a sign that risks around valuation, execution and growth are front of mind.
Narrative Update • Dec 17

BAP: Higher Multiple Expectations Will Support Returns Despite Softer Earnings Guidance

Analysts have raised Bapcor's price target from A$24.20 to A$31.00, citing expectations for a slightly higher future price to earnings multiple, despite moderating assumptions for revenue growth, profit margins and fair value. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts highlight that the higher price target for Bapcor reflects growing confidence that the company can sustain attractive returns even under more conservative growth assumptions.
Narrative Update • Dec 03

BAP: Future Earnings Will Benefit From Easing Sector Headwinds And Lower Discount Rate

Analysts have modestly raised their price target on Bapcor to reflect a slightly lower discount rate and broadly unchanged long term growth and profitability assumptions, aligning with recent peer target upgrades, such as Credicorp's increases from $242 to $310 and from $257 to $318. Analyst Commentary Recent actions by bullish analysts on regional peers, including higher price targets from JPMorgan, have reinforced confidence that sector headwinds are easing and that quality operators can sustain premium valuations.
Narrative Update • Nov 19

BAP: Future Cash Flows Will Benefit From Updated Discount Rate Assumptions

Narrative Update on Bapcor Analysts have modestly increased their price target for Bapcor, reflecting updated assumptions for discount rates while maintaining stability across key valuation metrics. Analyst Commentary Bullish Takeaways Bullish analysts view the recent price target increase as a signal of improved confidence in Bapcor's valuation and future cash flows, supported by updated discount rate assumptions.
Narrative Update • Nov 04

BAP: Ongoing Efficiency Initiatives Will Drive Margin Recovery Amid Market Headwinds

Analysts have revised Bapcor's price target downward from $3.54 to $3.21. This change reflects more cautious expectations for future growth and profitability.
Narrative Update • Oct 21

Analyst Commentary Highlights Caution as Bapcor Faces Lower Price Targets and Weaker Growth Outlook

Analysts have lowered their price target for Bapcor from $4.25 to $3.54. They cite expectations for slower revenue growth and a more conservative profit margin outlook.
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New Narrative • May 12

Simplified Operations And E-commerce Upgrades Will Drive Success

Operational streamlining, customer focus, and business integration are set to sustain growth, enhancing both net margins and earnings.
Analysis Article • May 04

Take Care Before Jumping Onto Bapcor Limited (ASX:BAP) Even Though It's 26% Cheaper

Bapcor Limited ( ASX:BAP ) shares have had a horrible month, losing 26% after a relatively good period beforehand. The...
Analysis Article • Apr 10

Bapcor (ASX:BAP) May Have Issues Allocating Its Capital

What trends should we look for it we want to identify stocks that can multiply in value over the long term? Typically...
Analysis Article • Mar 22

Is Bapcor Limited (ASX:BAP) Trading At A 39% Discount?

Key Insights The projected fair value for Bapcor is AU$10.22 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Bapcor's AU$6.24...
Analysis Article • Jan 23

Bapcor Limited (ASX:BAP) Not Lagging Market On Growth Or Pricing

There wouldn't be many who think Bapcor Limited's ( ASX:BAP ) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 16.9x is worth a...
Analysis Article • Nov 27

Bapcor Limited (ASX:BAP) Shares Could Be 45% Below Their Intrinsic Value Estimate

Key Insights Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, Bapcor fair value estimate is AU$9.67 Bapcor's AU$5.27 share...
Analysis Article • Oct 18

Is Bapcor (ASX:BAP) A Risky Investment?

Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously...
Analysis Article • Aug 19

Bapcor (ASX:BAP) Is Paying Out A Dividend Of A$0.115

Bapcor Limited ( ASX:BAP ) will pay a dividend of A$0.115 on the 19th of September. Based on this payment, the dividend...
Analysis Article • May 17

Bapcor Limited (ASX:BAP) Shares Could Be 36% Below Their Intrinsic Value Estimate

Key Insights Bapcor's estimated fair value is AU$9.84 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Current share price of...
Analysis Article • Apr 14

These 4 Measures Indicate That Bapcor (ASX:BAP) Is Using Debt Reasonably Well

David Iben put it well when he said, 'Volatility is not a risk we care about. What we care about is avoiding the...
Analysis Article • Feb 10

Calculating The Fair Value Of Bapcor Limited (ASX:BAP)

Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of Bapcor Limited ( ASX:BAP ) by estimating the...
Analysis Article • Nov 11

Bapcor's (ASX:BAP) Returns On Capital Are Heading Higher

If we want to find a potential multi-bagger, often there are underlying trends that can provide clues. One common...
Analysis Article • Oct 27

Bapcor (ASX:BAP) Seems To Use Debt Quite Sensibly

The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says...

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

ASX:BAP - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (AUD Millions)
DateRevenueEarningsFree Cash FlowCash from OpAvg. No. Analysts
6/30/20282,036428312512
6/30/20271,981307411512
6/30/20261,936-98679312
12/31/20251,936-1152876N/A
9/30/20251,956-4450105N/A
6/30/20251,9762873134N/A
3/31/20252,004-7492146N/A
12/31/20242,032-174119165N/A
9/30/20242,034-17086137N/A
6/30/20242,037-16553109N/A
3/31/20242,037-30114168N/A
12/31/20232,03898159210N/A
9/30/20232,029102165212N/A
6/30/20232,021106172214N/A
3/31/20231,982115109159N/A
12/31/20221,94312346104N/A
9/30/20221,89212547104N/A
6/30/20221,84212647105N/A
3/31/20221,81011745102N/A
12/31/20211,7781094298N/A
9/30/20211,77011461117N/A
6/30/20211,76211981136N/A
3/31/20211,703110126178N/A
12/31/20201,644102172220N/A
9/30/20201,55390167210N/A
6/30/20201,46379162200N/A
3/31/20201,41388124159N/A
12/31/20191,3639787118N/A
9/30/20191,33097N/A92N/A
6/30/20191,29797N/A66N/A
3/31/20191,27793N/A62N/A
12/31/20181,25790N/A58N/A
9/30/20181,24787N/A72N/A
6/30/20181,23785N/A85N/A
12/31/20171,19569N/A81N/A
9/30/20171,10462N/A71N/A
6/30/20171,01454N/A61N/A
12/31/201679650N/A44N/A
9/30/201674147N/A42N/A
6/30/201668644N/A39N/A
3/31/201660036N/A38N/A
12/31/201551528N/A37N/A
9/30/201544524N/A36N/A
6/30/201537520N/A34N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: BAP is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered faster growth than the savings rate (3.6%).

Earnings vs Market: BAP is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered above average market growth.

High Growth Earnings: BAP is expected to become profitable in the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: BAP's revenue (2.4% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the Australian market (6.4% per year).

High Growth Revenue: BAP's revenue (2.4% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: BAP's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (4.3%).

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/05/08 08:27
End of Day Share Price 2026/05/08 00:00
Earnings2025/12/31
Annual Earnings2025/06/30

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Bapcor Limited is covered by 16 analysts. 12 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Andrew HodgeCanaccord Genuity
Sam TeegerCitigroup Inc
Sam TeegerCitigroup Inc