Bapcor Future Growth

Future criteria checks 3/6

Bapcor is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 44.5% and 3.7% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 43.8% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 12.1% in 3 years.

Key information

44.5%

Earnings growth rate

43.78%

EPS growth rate

Retail Distributors earnings growth	14.8%
Revenue growth rate	3.7%
Future return on equity	12.13%
Analyst coverage	Good
Last updated	01 Jul 2025

Recent future growth updates

Recent updates

Simplified Operations And E-commerce Upgrades Will Drive Success

May 12 Operational streamlining, customer focus, and business integration are set to sustain growth, enhancing both net margins and earnings.

Take Care Before Jumping Onto Bapcor Limited (ASX:BAP) Even Though It's 26% Cheaper

May 04

Bapcor Limited (ASX:BAP) Shares Could Be 45% Below Their Intrinsic Value Estimate

Nov 27

Is Bapcor (ASX:BAP) A Risky Investment?

Oct 18

Bapcor (ASX:BAP) Is Paying Out A Dividend Of A$0.115

Aug 19

Bapcor Limited (ASX:BAP) Shares Could Be 36% Below Their Intrinsic Value Estimate

May 17

These 4 Measures Indicate That Bapcor (ASX:BAP) Is Using Debt Reasonably Well

Apr 14

Calculating The Fair Value Of Bapcor Limited (ASX:BAP)

Feb 10

Bapcor's (ASX:BAP) Returns On Capital Are Heading Higher

Nov 11

Bapcor (ASX:BAP) Seems To Use Debt Quite Sensibly

Oct 27

Bapcor's (ASX:BAP) Dividend Will Be Increased To A$0.115

Aug 23

The Returns At Bapcor (ASX:BAP) Aren't Growing

Jul 19

Is There An Opportunity With Bapcor Limited's (ASX:BAP) 49% Undervaluation?

May 23

Slowing Rates Of Return At Bapcor (ASX:BAP) Leave Little Room For Excitement

Apr 13

Does Bapcor (ASX:BAP) Have A Healthy Balance Sheet?

Mar 30

Bapcor (ASX:BAP) Has Some Way To Go To Become A Multi-Bagger

Jan 10

Is There An Opportunity With Bapcor Limited's (ASX:BAP) 26% Undervaluation?

Dec 24

Here's Why I Think Bapcor (ASX:BAP) Might Deserve Your Attention Today

Nov 19

It's Unlikely That Bapcor Limited's (ASX:BAP) CEO Will See A Huge Pay Rise This Year

Oct 12

We Think Bapcor (ASX:BAP) Can Stay On Top Of Its Debt

Oct 06

Calculating The Fair Value Of Bapcor Limited (ASX:BAP)

Sep 06

Here's Why I Think Bapcor (ASX:BAP) Might Deserve Your Attention Today

Aug 20

Here's Why Bapcor (ASX:BAP) Can Manage Its Debt Responsibly

Jun 22

Bapcor Limited's (ASX:BAP) Intrinsic Value Is Potentially 17% Below Its Share Price

May 11

Read This Before Buying Bapcor Limited (ASX:BAP) For Its Dividend

Apr 29

Bapcor's (ASX:BAP) Returns On Capital Are Heading Higher

Apr 15

Does Bapcor (ASX:BAP) Have A Healthy Balance Sheet?

Mar 21

Did You Participate In Any Of Bapcor's (ASX:BAP) Respectable 80% Return?

Mar 08

The Independent Non-Executive Director of Bapcor Limited (ASX:BAP), James Scott Todd, Just Bought 100% More Shares

Feb 24

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

ASX:BAP - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (AUD Millions)
Date	Revenue	Earnings	Free Cash Flow	Cash from Op	Avg. No. Analysts
6/30/2028	2,289	157	138	187	2
6/30/2027	2,170	123	159	207	11
6/30/2026	2,097	113	147	192	11
6/30/2025	2,024	94	128	196	11
12/31/2024	2,032	-164	142	189	N/A
9/30/2024	2,034	-161	105	158	N/A
6/30/2024	2,037	-158	69	126	N/A
3/31/2024	2,037	-30	114	168	N/A
12/31/2023	2,038	98	159	210	N/A
9/30/2023	2,029	102	165	212	N/A
6/30/2023	2,021	106	172	214	N/A
3/31/2023	1,982	115	109	159	N/A
12/31/2022	1,943	123	46	104	N/A
9/30/2022	1,892	125	47	104	N/A
6/30/2022	1,842	126	47	105	N/A
3/31/2022	1,810	117	45	102	N/A
12/31/2021	1,778	109	42	98	N/A
9/30/2021	1,770	114	61	117	N/A
6/30/2021	1,762	119	81	136	N/A
3/31/2021	1,703	110	126	178	N/A
12/31/2020	1,644	102	172	220	N/A
9/30/2020	1,553	90	167	210	N/A
6/30/2020	1,463	79	162	200	N/A
3/31/2020	1,413	88	124	159	N/A
12/31/2019	1,363	97	87	118	N/A
9/30/2019	1,330	97	62	92	N/A
6/30/2019	1,297	97	36	66	N/A
3/31/2019	1,277	93	36	62	N/A
12/31/2018	1,257	90	35	58	N/A
9/30/2018	1,247	87	N/A	72	N/A
6/30/2018	1,237	85	N/A	85	N/A
12/31/2017	1,195	69	N/A	81	N/A
9/30/2017	1,104	62	N/A	71	N/A
6/30/2017	1,014	54	N/A	61	N/A
12/31/2016	796	50	N/A	44	N/A
9/30/2016	741	47	N/A	42	N/A
6/30/2016	686	44	N/A	39	N/A
3/31/2016	600	36	N/A	38	N/A
12/31/2015	515	28	N/A	37	N/A
9/30/2015	445	24	N/A	36	N/A
6/30/2015	375	20	N/A	34	N/A
3/31/2015	367	15	N/A	28	N/A
12/31/2014	358	10	N/A	23	N/A
9/30/2014	350	6	N/A	22	N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: BAP is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered faster growth than the savings rate (3%).

Earnings vs Market: BAP is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered above average market growth.

High Growth Earnings: BAP is expected to become profitable in the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: BAP's revenue (3.7% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the Australian market (5.5% per year).

High Growth Revenue: BAP's revenue (3.7% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: BAP's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (12.1%).

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2025/07/02 21:20
End of Day Share Price	2025/07/02 00:00
Earnings	2024/12/31
Annual Earnings	2024/06/30

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

Package	Data	Timeframe	Example US Source ^*
Company Financials	10 years	Income statement Cash flow statement Balance sheet	SEC Form 10-K SEC Form 10-Q
Analyst Consensus Estimates	+3 years	Forecast financials Analyst price targets	Analyst Research Reports Blue Matrix
Market Prices	30 years	Stock prices Dividends, Splits and Actions	ICE Market Data SEC Form S-1
Ownership	10 years	Top shareholders Insider trading	SEC Form 4 SEC Form 13D
Management	10 years	Leadership team Board of directors	SEC Form 10-K SEC Form DEF 14A
Key Developments	10 years	Company announcements	SEC Form 8-K

^* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Bapcor Limited is covered by 20 analysts. 11 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

Analyst	Institution
Andrew Hodge	Canaccord Genuity
Sam Teeger	Citigroup Inc
Sam Teeger	Citigroup Inc

Bapcor Future Growth

Future criteria checks 3/6

Key information

Recent future growth updates

Price target decreased by 7.5% to AU$6.11

Consensus EPS estimates fall by 13%

Price target decreased by 7.9% to AU$6.96

Consensus forecasts updated

Recent updates

Simplified Operations And E-commerce Upgrades Will Drive Success

High number of new directors

First half dividend of AU$0.08 announced

First half 2025 earnings released: EPS: AU$0.12 (vs AU$0.14 in 1H 2024)

Bapcor Limited Announces Resignation of George Saoud as Chief Financial Officer

Bapcor Limited Announces the Appointment of Jacqueline Korhonen as Non-Executive Director, Effective 1 February 2025

Bapcor Limited to Report First Half, 2025 Results on Feb 26, 2025

An undisclosed buyer completed the acquisition of MTQ Engine Systems (Aust) Pty Ltd. from Bapcor Limited (ASX:BAP).

An undisclosed buyer entered into a conditional agreement to acquire MTQ Engine Systems (Aust) Pty Ltd. from Bapcor Limited (ASX:BAP).

Bain Capital Private Equity, LP cancelled the acquisition of Bapcor Limited (ASX:BAP).

Bain Capital Private Equity, LP signed a letter of intent to acquire Bapcor Limited (ASX:BAP) for AUD 1.8 billion.

Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 18%

Take Care Before Jumping Onto Bapcor Limited (ASX:BAP) Even Though It's 26% Cheaper

Price target decreased by 7.5% to AU$6.11

Consensus EPS estimates fall by 13%

Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 23%

Bapcor (ASX:BAP) May Have Issues Allocating Its Capital

Is Bapcor Limited (ASX:BAP) Trading At A 39% Discount?

Bapcor Limited Appoints George Saoud as Interim Chief Financial Officer, Effective 14 March 2024

Upcoming dividend of AU$0.095 per share

First half dividend of AU$0.095 announced

First half 2024 earnings released: EPS: AU$0.14 (vs AU$0.16 in 1H 2023)

Bapcor Limited (ASX:BAP) Not Lagging Market On Growth Or Pricing

Bapcor Limited Announces Resignation of Stefan Camphausen as Chief Financial Officer

Bapcor Limited Announces Resignation of Rebecca Dee-Bradbury as Non-Executive Director Effective 31 December 2023

Bapcor Limited, Annual General Meeting, Oct 16, 2024

Bapcor Limited (ASX:BAP) Shares Could Be 45% Below Their Intrinsic Value Estimate

CEO, MD & Director recently bought AU$199k worth of stock

Price target decreased by 7.9% to AU$6.96

Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 20%

Is Bapcor (ASX:BAP) A Risky Investment?

CEO, MD & Director recently bought AU$300k worth of stock

Upcoming dividend of AU$0.12 per share at 3.3% yield

Bapcor Limited Appoints Rebecca Dee-Bradbury as Non-Executive Director, Effective 1 September 2023

Bapcor (ASX:BAP) Is Paying Out A Dividend Of A$0.115

Full year 2023 earnings: EPS misses analyst expectations

Bapcor Limited (ASX:BAP) Shares Could Be 36% Below Their Intrinsic Value Estimate

These 4 Measures Indicate That Bapcor (ASX:BAP) Is Using Debt Reasonably Well

Non-Executive Director recently bought AU$65k worth of stock

Bapcor Limited Announces Dividend for the Six Months Ended December 31, 2023, Payable on March 17, 2023

First half 2023 earnings released: EPS: AU$0.16 (vs AU$0.17 in 1H 2022)

Now 21% undervalued after recent price drop

Calculating The Fair Value Of Bapcor Limited (ASX:BAP)

Bapcor Limited to Report First Half, 2023 Results on Feb 16, 2023

Now 22% undervalued

High number of new and inexperienced directors

Consensus forecasts updated

Bapcor's (ASX:BAP) Returns On Capital Are Heading Higher

High number of new and inexperienced directors

Bapcor (ASX:BAP) Seems To Use Debt Quite Sensibly

High number of new and inexperienced directors

Bapcor Limited Appoints Brad Soller as Non-Executive Director, Effective 1 November 2022

Bapcor Limited Announces Retirement of Jenny Macdonald as Director

CEO, MD & Director recently bought AU$250k worth of stock

Bapcor's (ASX:BAP) Dividend Will Be Increased To A$0.115

Upcoming dividend of AU$0.12 per share

Full year 2022 earnings: EPS misses analyst expectations

Bapcor Limited Announces Dividend for the Six Months Ending June 30, 2022, Payable on September 16, 2022

Bapcor Limited Announces Director Changes

The Returns At Bapcor (ASX:BAP) Aren't Growing

Bapcor Limited to Report Fiscal Year 2022 Results on Aug 17, 2022

Bapcor Limited Appoints Stefan Camphausen as Chief Financial Officer, Effective 4 July 2022

Is There An Opportunity With Bapcor Limited's (ASX:BAP) 49% Undervaluation?

Bapcor Limited, Annual General Meeting, Oct 19, 2022

Slowing Rates Of Return At Bapcor (ASX:BAP) Leave Little Room For Excitement

Does Bapcor (ASX:BAP) Have A Healthy Balance Sheet?

Upcoming dividend of AU$0.10 per share

Interim Executive Chair recently bought AU$81k worth of stock

First half 2022 earnings: EPS misses analyst expectations

Bapcor Assembles Its Takeover Defence

Bapcor Limited Declares Interim Dividend for the Fiscal Year 2022, Payable on March 14, 2022