Stock Analysis

Nine Entertainment Holdings (ASX:NEC) sheds AU$87m, company earnings and investor returns have been trending downwards for past three years

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ASX:NEC

Investing in stocks inevitably means buying into some companies that perform poorly. Long term Nine Entertainment Co. Holdings Limited (ASX:NEC) shareholders know that all too well, since the share price is down considerably over three years. Unfortunately, they have held through a 58% decline in the share price in that time. And over the last year the share price fell 37%, so we doubt many shareholders are delighted. Shareholders have had an even rougher run lately, with the share price down 19% in the last 90 days.

With the stock having lost 4.5% in the past week, it's worth taking a look at business performance and seeing if there's any red flags.

Check out our latest analysis for Nine Entertainment Holdings

To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

During the three years that the share price fell, Nine Entertainment Holdings' earnings per share (EPS) dropped by 11% each year. This reduction in EPS is slower than the 25% annual reduction in the share price. So it's likely that the EPS decline has disappointed the market, leaving investors hesitant to buy.

The image below shows how EPS has tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

ASX:NEC Earnings Per Share Growth October 30th 2024

We're pleased to report that the CEO is remunerated more modestly than most CEOs at similarly capitalized companies. It's always worth keeping an eye on CEO pay, but a more important question is whether the company will grow earnings throughout the years. Dive deeper into the earnings by checking this interactive graph of Nine Entertainment Holdings' earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. As it happens, Nine Entertainment Holdings' TSR for the last 3 years was -51%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

While the broader market gained around 26% in the last year, Nine Entertainment Holdings shareholders lost 33% (even including dividends). However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 3% per year over five years. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Take risks, for example - Nine Entertainment Holdings has 3 warning signs we think you should be aware of.

If you would prefer to check out another company -- one with potentially superior financials -- then do not miss this free list of companies that have proven they can grow earnings.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Australian exchanges.

Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.

Discover if Nine Entertainment Holdings might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.