The five-year decline in earnings for EVT ASX:EVT) isn't encouraging, but shareholders are still up 109% over that period

Generally speaking the aim of active stock picking is to find companies that provide returns that are superior to the market average. And while active stock picking involves risks (and requires diversification) it can also provide excess returns. To wit, the EVT share price has climbed 93% in five years, easily topping the market return of 44% (ignoring dividends). However, more recent returns haven't been as impressive as that, with the stock returning just 46% in the last year, including dividends.

Since the long term performance has been good but there's been a recent pullback of 3.1%, let's check if the fundamentals match the share price.

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We don't think that EVT's modest trailing twelve month profit has the market's full attention at the moment. We think revenue is probably a better guide. Generally speaking, we'd consider a stock like this alongside loss-making companies, simply because the quantum of the profit is so low. For shareholders to have confidence a company will grow profits significantly, it must grow revenue.

For the last half decade, EVT can boast revenue growth at a rate of 13% per year. That's a fairly respectable growth rate. While the share price has beat the market, compounding at 14% yearly, over five years, there's certainly some potential that the market hasn't fully considered the growth track record. If revenue growth can maintain for long enough, it's likely profits will flow. Lack of earnings means you have to project further into the future justify the valuation on the basis of future free cash flow.

You can see how earnings and revenue have changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

We like that insiders have been buying shares in the last twelve months. Having said that, most people consider earnings and revenue growth trends to be a more meaningful guide to the business. You can see what analysts are predicting for EVT in this interactive graph of future profit estimates.

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. In the case of EVT, it has a TSR of 109% for the last 5 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

It's good to see that EVT has rewarded shareholders with a total shareholder return of 46% in the last twelve months. And that does include the dividend. Since the one-year TSR is better than the five-year TSR (the latter coming in at 16% per year), it would seem that the stock's performance has improved in recent times. Someone with an optimistic perspective could view the recent improvement in TSR as indicating that the business itself is getting better with time. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand EVT better, we need to consider many other factors. To that end, you should be aware of the 2 warning signs we've spotted with EVT .

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Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Australian exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.