Aurelia Metals Limited

CHIA:AMI Stock Report

Market Cap: AU$296.0m

Aurelia Metals Valuation

Is AMI undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of AMI when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: AMI (A$0.17) is trading below our estimate of fair value (A$0.47)

Significantly Below Fair Value: AMI is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for AMI?

Key metric: As AMI is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for AMI. This is calculated by dividing AMI's market cap by their current revenue.
What is AMI's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio1x
SalesAU$309.89m
Market CapAU$296.02m

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does AMI's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for AMI vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average10.1x
OMH OM Holdings
0.3x14.5%AU$263.7m
GNG GR Engineering Services
0.8xn/aAU$352.4m
JMS Jupiter Mines
38.9xn/aAU$313.6m
29M 29Metals
0.6x13.4%AU$256.3m
AMI Aurelia Metals
1x4.6%AU$296.0m

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: AMI is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (1x) compared to the peer average (10.1x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does AMI's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the AU Metals and Mining Industry?

125 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.60.4x2.7%
AMI Aurelia Metals
 1x4.6%US$191.66m
BHP BHP Group
2.3x-4.1%US$131.60b
FMG Fortescue
1.9x-5.6%US$35.31b
AMI 1.0xIndustry Avg. 60.4xNo. of Companies124PS020406080100+
125 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.60.4x10.6%
AMI Aurelia Metals
 1x30.2%US$191.66m
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: AMI is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (1x) compared to the Australian Metals and Mining industry average (60.4x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is AMI's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

AMI PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio1x
Fair PS Ratio0.5x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: AMI is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.5x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst AMI forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentAU$0.17
AU$0.25
+44.9%
5.7%AU$0.27AU$0.24n/a3
Nov ’25AU$0.18
AU$0.25
+40.8%
5.7%AU$0.27AU$0.24n/a3
Oct ’25AU$0.18
AU$0.21
+16.7%
35.8%AU$0.26AU$0.08n/a4
Sep ’25AU$0.16
AU$0.21
+36.5%
36.4%AU$0.27AU$0.08n/a4
Aug ’25AU$0.17
AU$0.22
+27.5%
37.1%AU$0.28AU$0.08n/a4
Jul ’25AU$0.18
AU$0.21
+12.2%
36.1%AU$0.27AU$0.08n/a4
Jun ’25AU$0.19
AU$0.20
+6.6%
35.2%AU$0.25AU$0.08n/a4
May ’25AU$0.19
AU$0.20
+1.3%
34.5%AU$0.25AU$0.08n/a4
Apr ’25AU$0.15
AU$0.17
+13.1%
34.6%AU$0.23AU$0.08n/a4
Mar ’25AU$0.14
AU$0.19
+43.2%
16.0%AU$0.22AU$0.15n/a3
Feb ’25AU$0.11
AU$0.19
+65.9%
18.2%AU$0.22AU$0.14n/a3
Jan ’25AU$0.11
AU$0.19
+65.9%
18.2%AU$0.22AU$0.14n/a3
Dec ’24AU$0.11
AU$0.18
+70.5%
16.9%AU$0.21AU$0.14n/a3
Nov ’24AU$0.097
AU$0.18
+89.0%
16.9%AU$0.21AU$0.14AU$0.183
Oct ’24AU$0.09
AU$0.27
+194.4%
54.3%AU$0.51AU$0.14AU$0.184
Sep ’24AU$0.086
AU$0.26
+205.2%
55.7%AU$0.51AU$0.13AU$0.164
Aug ’24AU$0.091
AU$0.26
+180.2%
59.1%AU$0.51AU$0.12AU$0.174
Jul ’24AU$0.093
AU$0.26
+179.6%
57.5%AU$0.51AU$0.12AU$0.184
Jun ’24AU$0.10
AU$0.31
+210.0%
46.3%AU$0.51AU$0.18AU$0.193
May ’24AU$0.14
AU$0.33
+144.4%
38.6%AU$0.51AU$0.23AU$0.193
Apr ’24AU$0.12
AU$0.37
+202.0%
28.9%AU$0.51AU$0.25AU$0.153
Mar ’24AU$0.11
AU$0.54
+390.9%
70.3%AU$1.07AU$0.20AU$0.143
Feb ’24AU$0.14
AU$0.54
+300.0%
70.3%AU$1.07AU$0.20AU$0.113
Jan ’24AU$0.13
AU$0.52
+310.5%
74.3%AU$1.07AU$0.20AU$0.113
Dec ’23AU$0.17
AU$0.53
+223.2%
71.4%AU$1.07AU$0.23AU$0.113
Nov ’23AU$0.11
AU$0.54
+402.3%
69.5%AU$1.07AU$0.25AU$0.0973

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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