Stock Analysis

Calculating The Fair Value Of Sims Limited (ASX:SGM)

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ASX:SGM
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Key Insights

  • The projected fair value for Sims is AU$13.48 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
  • Sims' AU$14.93 share price indicates it is trading at similar levels as its fair value estimate
  • Our fair value estimate is 11% higher than Sims' analyst price target of AU$14.95

Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of Sims Limited (ASX:SGM) by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them to today's value. One way to achieve this is by employing the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Don't get put off by the jargon, the math behind it is actually quite straightforward.

We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. If you still have some burning questions about this type of valuation, take a look at the Simply Wall St analysis model.

See our latest analysis for Sims

The Model

We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032
Levered FCF (A$, Millions) AU$253.4m AU$155.6m AU$164.7m AU$177.1m AU$189.9m AU$199.5m AU$207.8m AU$215.0m AU$221.5m AU$227.4m
Growth Rate Estimate Source Analyst x3 Analyst x3 Analyst x3 Analyst x1 Analyst x1 Est @ 5.07% Est @ 4.13% Est @ 3.47% Est @ 3.01% Est @ 2.68%
Present Value (A$, Millions) Discounted @ 9.3% AU$232 AU$130 AU$126 AU$124 AU$122 AU$117 AU$111 AU$106 AU$99.4 AU$93.4

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = AU$1.3b

After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (1.9%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 9.3%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2032 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = AU$227m× (1 + 1.9%) ÷ (9.3%– 1.9%) = AU$3.1b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= AU$3.1b÷ ( 1 + 9.3%)10= AU$1.3b

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is AU$2.6b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of AU$14.9, the company appears around fair value at the time of writing. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.

dcf
ASX:SGM Discounted Cash Flow March 15th 2023

Important Assumptions

The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Sims as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 9.3%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.241. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for Sims

Strength
  • Debt is not viewed as a risk.
  • Dividends are covered by earnings and cash flows.
Weakness
  • Earnings growth over the past year underperformed the Metals and Mining industry.
  • Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Metals and Mining market.
Opportunity
  • Annual earnings are forecast to grow for the next 3 years.
  • Good value based on P/E ratio compared to estimated Fair P/E ratio.
Threat
  • Annual earnings are forecast to grow slower than the Australian market.

Next Steps:

Whilst important, the DCF calculation shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. For Sims, there are three pertinent elements you should further examine:

  1. Risks: To that end, you should be aware of the 2 warning signs we've spotted with Sims .
  2. Future Earnings: How does SGM's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
  3. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Australian stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

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