Sims Limited

ASX:SGM Stock Report

Market Cap: AU$2.5b

Sims Valuation

Is SGM undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of SGM when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: SGM (A$12.72) is trading below our estimate of fair value (A$15.99)

Significantly Below Fair Value: SGM is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for SGM?

Key metric: As SGM is barely profitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for SGM. This is calculated by dividing SGM's market cap by their current revenue.
What is SGM's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio0.3x
SalesAU$7.22b
Market CapAU$2.45b

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does SGM's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for SGM vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average2.8x
CIA Champion Iron
1.6x4.4%AU$2.8b
CRN Coronado Global Resources
0.4x1.8%AU$1.6b
DRR Deterra Royalties
8.1x-5.1%AU$1.9b
VSL Vulcan Steel
1x5.4%AU$1.0b
SGM Sims
0.3x2.4%AU$2.5b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: SGM is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.3x) compared to the peer average (2.8x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does SGM's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the AU Metals and Mining Industry?

124 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.61.3x2.5%
SGM Sims
 0.3x2.4%US$1.59b
BHP BHP Group
2.4x-4.1%US$132.76b
FMG Fortescue
1.9x-5.6%US$35.45b
SGM 0.3xIndustry Avg. 61.3xNo. of Companies124PS020406080100+
124 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.61.3x10.1%
SGM Sims
 0.3x42.1%US$1.59b
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: SGM is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.3x) compared to the Australian Metals and Mining industry average (61.3x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is SGM's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

SGM PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio0.3x
Fair PS Ratio0.6x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: SGM is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.6x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst SGM forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentAU$12.72
AU$13.18
+3.6%
8.9%AU$15.40AU$10.70n/a12
Nov ’25AU$12.62
AU$13.05
+3.4%
9.5%AU$15.40AU$10.70n/a12
Oct ’25AU$12.74
AU$12.42
-2.5%
9.2%AU$14.50AU$10.50n/a11
Sep ’25AU$10.98
AU$11.85
+7.9%
9.0%AU$13.50AU$9.77n/a12
Aug ’25AU$10.28
AU$11.44
+11.3%
12.2%AU$13.50AU$9.40n/a13
Jul ’25AU$10.20
AU$11.54
+13.1%
12.3%AU$13.50AU$9.40n/a13
Jun ’25AU$10.61
AU$11.70
+10.3%
10.9%AU$13.50AU$9.57n/a13
May ’25AU$11.64
AU$13.42
+15.3%
10.3%AU$16.00AU$11.00n/a13
Apr ’25AU$12.72
AU$13.38
+5.2%
10.2%AU$16.00AU$11.00n/a13
Mar ’25AU$12.38
AU$13.31
+7.5%
10.0%AU$16.00AU$11.00n/a13
Feb ’25AU$14.43
AU$14.46
+0.2%
9.4%AU$17.30AU$12.00n/a12
Jan ’25AU$15.56
AU$14.22
-8.6%
10.1%AU$17.30AU$12.00n/a12
Dec ’24AU$13.62
AU$13.98
+2.7%
8.7%AU$15.80AU$12.00n/a13
Nov ’24AU$12.53
AU$14.07
+12.3%
9.3%AU$16.20AU$12.00AU$12.6213
Oct ’24AU$13.53
AU$14.74
+8.9%
10.1%AU$17.50AU$12.50AU$12.7413
Sep ’24AU$15.29
AU$15.88
+3.9%
9.8%AU$18.75AU$13.14AU$10.9813
Aug ’24AU$15.20
AU$15.36
+1.0%
12.3%AU$18.25AU$11.00AU$10.2813
Jul ’24AU$15.75
AU$15.31
-2.8%
11.2%AU$18.25AU$11.00AU$10.2014
Jun ’24AU$14.22
AU$15.41
+8.4%
11.8%AU$18.25AU$11.00AU$10.6114
May ’24AU$15.60
AU$15.30
-1.9%
12.7%AU$18.25AU$11.00AU$11.6412
Apr ’24AU$15.51
AU$15.22
-1.9%
11.8%AU$18.25AU$11.00AU$12.7213
Mar ’24AU$15.99
AU$14.65
-8.4%
13.2%AU$18.25AU$11.00AU$12.3814
Feb ’24AU$15.41
AU$12.88
-16.4%
16.2%AU$17.00AU$9.60AU$14.4314
Jan ’24AU$13.09
AU$12.27
-6.3%
12.1%AU$15.42AU$9.60AU$15.5613
Dec ’23AU$13.50
AU$12.44
-7.8%
12.0%AU$15.42AU$9.60AU$13.6212
Nov ’23AU$12.56
AU$15.19
+21.0%
15.1%AU$19.40AU$10.80AU$12.5312

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

Discover undervalued companies

Nufarm

AU$1.6b

Develops, manufactures, and sells crop protection solutions and seed technologies in Europe, the Middle East, Africa, North America, and the Asia Pacific.

NUF

AU$4.16

7D

11.8%

1Y

-9.2%

Capral

AU$156.9m

Manufactures, markets, and distributes fabricated and semi-fabricated aluminum related products in Australia.

CAA

AU$9.28

7D

-0.7%

1Y

5.9%

Incitec Pivot

AU$6.0b

Manufactures and distributes industrial explosives, industrial chemicals, and fertilizers in Australia, the United States, and internationally.

IPL

AU$3.20

7D

5.8%

1Y

12.9%