We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

BlueScope Steel Valuation

Is BSL undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for BSL?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

BSL key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.5x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA2.1x
PEG Ratio-0.09x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does BSL's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for BSL vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyPEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average8.5x
CRN Coronado Global Resources
2.5x-37.2%AU$3.5b
CIA Champion Iron
13.5x17.6%AU$3.7b
SGM Sims
4.3x-27.2%AU$2.6b
DRR Deterra Royalties
13.8x-13.0%AU$2.5b
BSL BlueScope Steel
3x-32.0%AU$8.4b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: BSL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (3x) compared to the peer average (8.5x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does BSL's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the AU Metals and Mining Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a-6.0%
n/an/an/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: BSL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (3x) compared to the Australian Metals and Mining industry average (11.3x)


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is BSL's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

BSL PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio3x
Fair PE Ratio7.7x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: BSL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.7x).


Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of BSL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: BSL (A$18.14) is trading below our estimate of fair value (A$22.17)

Significantly Below Fair Value: BSL is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst BSL forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentAU$18.14
AU$19.36
+6.7%
12.4%AU$24.00AU$13.00n/a14
Dec ’23AU$17.91
AU$19.36
+8.1%
12.4%AU$24.00AU$13.00n/a14
Nov ’23AU$16.16
AU$19.65
+21.6%
13.9%AU$24.00AU$13.00n/a14
Oct ’23AU$15.19
AU$20.14
+32.6%
14.1%AU$24.30AU$13.00n/a14
Sep ’23AU$16.47
AU$20.41
+23.9%
13.3%AU$24.30AU$13.00n/a14
Aug ’23AU$16.77
AU$21.21
+26.5%
15.2%AU$25.00AU$13.00n/a14
Jul ’23AU$15.76
AU$23.26
+47.6%
13.5%AU$28.70AU$15.50n/a12
Jun ’23AU$18.39
AU$23.25
+26.4%
11.5%AU$26.00AU$15.50n/a11
May ’23AU$20.54
AU$23.56
+14.7%
13.2%AU$28.00AU$15.50n/a11
Apr ’23AU$21.16
AU$23.75
+12.2%
13.0%AU$28.70AU$15.50n/a12
Mar ’23AU$20.06
AU$23.45
+16.9%
13.5%AU$28.70AU$15.50n/a13
Feb ’23AU$18.50
AU$25.15
+35.9%
14.6%AU$30.00AU$15.50n/a13
Jan ’23AU$20.90
AU$25.05
+19.9%
14.7%AU$30.00AU$15.50n/a13
Dec ’22AU$19.68
AU$25.20
+28.0%
17.0%AU$33.00AU$15.50AU$17.9112
Nov ’22AU$20.62
AU$25.76
+24.9%
17.1%AU$33.00AU$15.50AU$16.1611
Oct ’22AU$19.87
AU$26.29
+32.3%
19.7%AU$35.00AU$15.50AU$15.1911
Sep ’22AU$25.00
AU$27.14
+8.6%
19.2%AU$35.00AU$14.30AU$16.4711
Aug ’22AU$24.19
AU$24.10
-0.4%
23.5%AU$34.00AU$14.00AU$16.7710
Jul ’22AU$22.29
AU$22.51
+1.0%
19.0%AU$29.00AU$14.00AU$15.7610
Jun ’22AU$21.27
AU$21.42
+0.7%
17.1%AU$26.00AU$14.00AU$18.3911
May ’22AU$21.62
AU$21.25
-1.7%
17.0%AU$26.00AU$14.00AU$20.5411
Apr ’22AU$20.02
AU$19.26
-3.8%
13.1%AU$23.00AU$12.90AU$21.1612
Mar ’22AU$17.25
AU$19.11
+10.8%
14.0%AU$24.00AU$12.90AU$20.0612
Feb ’22AU$16.62
AU$18.96
+14.1%
14.4%AU$23.00AU$12.90AU$18.5012
Jan ’22AU$17.48
AU$18.62
+6.5%
11.6%AU$20.80AU$12.60AU$20.9011
Dec ’21AU$17.20
AU$18.71
+8.8%
12.1%AU$21.20AU$12.60AU$19.6811

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.


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