BlueScope Steel Limited

ASX:BSL Stock Report

Market Cap: AU$9.2b

BlueScope Steel Valuation

Is BSL undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of BSL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: BSL (A$21.12) is trading below our estimate of fair value (A$43.8)

Significantly Below Fair Value: BSL is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for BSL?

Key metric: As BSL is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for BSL. This is calculated by dividing BSL's market cap by their current earnings.
What is BSL's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio11.5x
EarningsAU$804.70m
Market CapAU$9.16b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does BSL's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for BSL vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average8.9x
CIA Champion Iron
10.2x7.5%AU$2.8b
DRR Deterra Royalties
12.4x-6.9%AU$1.9b
FMG Fortescue
6.4x-27.1%AU$54.6b
SMR Stanmore Resources
6.7x-16.9%AU$2.8b
BSL BlueScope Steel
11.5x8.3%AU$9.2b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: BSL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.5x) compared to the peer average (8.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does BSL's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the AU Metals and Mining Industry?

9 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
KCN Kingsgate Consolidated
1.7x-13.3%US$224.57m
GRR Grange Resources
2.6xn/aUS$180.60m
RHI Red Hill Minerals
1.8xn/aUS$178.04m
PTN Patronus Resources
2.4xn/aUS$66.01m
BSL 11.5xIndustry Avg. 11.9xNo. of Companies13PE01224364860+
9 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: BSL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.5x) compared to the Australian Metals and Mining industry average (11.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is BSL's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

BSL PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio11.5x
Fair PE Ratio17.2x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: BSL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.2x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst BSL forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentAU$21.12
AU$21.69
+2.7%
10.6%AU$25.10AU$17.70n/a13
Nov ’25AU$20.56
AU$21.69
+5.5%
10.6%AU$25.10AU$17.70n/a13
Oct ’25AU$21.89
AU$21.68
-0.9%
12.6%AU$25.30AU$17.00n/a13
Sep ’25AU$20.66
AU$21.95
+6.3%
12.8%AU$25.57AU$17.00n/a14
Aug ’25AU$21.94
AU$23.03
+5.0%
14.1%AU$28.20AU$16.50n/a14
Jul ’25AU$20.24
AU$23.74
+17.3%
15.8%AU$30.10AU$16.50n/a14
Jun ’25AU$21.14
AU$23.92
+13.1%
13.4%AU$29.45AU$16.50n/a14
May ’25AU$22.36
AU$24.06
+7.6%
13.3%AU$29.45AU$16.50n/a14
Apr ’25AU$23.85
AU$23.31
-2.3%
11.1%AU$26.50AU$16.50n/a14
Mar ’25AU$22.77
AU$23.22
+2.0%
11.4%AU$26.50AU$16.50n/a13
Feb ’25AU$23.38
AU$22.49
-3.8%
14.7%AU$26.40AU$16.50n/a12
Jan ’25AU$23.40
AU$22.11
-5.5%
13.5%AU$26.00AU$16.50n/a12
Dec ’24AU$21.13
AU$21.74
+2.9%
14.0%AU$25.91AU$16.50n/a13
Nov ’24AU$18.96
AU$21.17
+11.7%
13.9%AU$25.91AU$16.50AU$20.5613
Oct ’24AU$19.44
AU$22.73
+16.9%
12.5%AU$27.00AU$16.50AU$21.8913
Sep ’24AU$21.44
AU$23.02
+7.4%
11.2%AU$27.00AU$16.50AU$20.6613
Aug ’24AU$22.00
AU$22.74
+3.3%
13.1%AU$27.00AU$15.00AU$21.9413
Jul ’24AU$20.55
AU$22.16
+7.8%
16.3%AU$27.00AU$14.40AU$20.2414
Jun ’24AU$18.80
AU$22.31
+18.7%
16.1%AU$27.00AU$14.40AU$21.1414
May ’24AU$19.96
AU$22.31
+11.8%
16.1%AU$27.00AU$14.40AU$22.3614
Apr ’24AU$20.15
AU$20.49
+1.7%
17.0%AU$26.00AU$13.00AU$23.8513
Mar ’24AU$19.82
AU$19.89
+0.3%
14.4%AU$24.00AU$13.00AU$22.7714
Feb ’24AU$19.34
AU$19.80
+2.4%
13.2%AU$24.00AU$13.00AU$23.3814
Jan ’24AU$16.84
AU$19.39
+15.1%
12.5%AU$24.00AU$13.00AU$23.4014
Dec ’23AU$17.91
AU$19.36
+8.1%
12.4%AU$24.00AU$13.00AU$21.1314
Nov ’23AU$16.16
AU$19.65
+21.6%
13.9%AU$24.00AU$13.00AU$18.9614

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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