Stock Analysis

Institutional owners may consider drastic measures as Nufarm Limited's (ASX:NUF) recent AU$99m drop adds to long-term losses

Published
ASX:NUF

Key Insights

  • Given the large stake in the stock by institutions, Nufarm's stock price might be vulnerable to their trading decisions
  • A total of 6 investors have a majority stake in the company with 53% ownership
  • Recent purchases by insiders

If you want to know who really controls Nufarm Limited (ASX:NUF), then you'll have to look at the makeup of its share registry. We can see that institutions own the lion's share in the company with 82% ownership. That is, the group stands to benefit the most if the stock rises (or lose the most if there is a downturn).

As a result, institutional investors endured the highest losses last week after market cap fell by AU$99m. This set of investors may especially be concerned about the current loss, which adds to a one-year loss of 18% for shareholders. Often called “market movers", institutions wield significant power in influencing the price dynamics of any stock. Hence, if weakness in Nufarm's share price continues, institutional investors may feel compelled to sell the stock, which might not be ideal for individual investors.

Let's take a closer look to see what the different types of shareholders can tell us about Nufarm.

See our latest analysis for Nufarm

ASX:NUF Ownership Breakdown July 25th 2024

What Does The Institutional Ownership Tell Us About Nufarm?

Institutional investors commonly compare their own returns to the returns of a commonly followed index. So they generally do consider buying larger companies that are included in the relevant benchmark index.

We can see that Nufarm does have institutional investors; and they hold a good portion of the company's stock. This can indicate that the company has a certain degree of credibility in the investment community. However, it is best to be wary of relying on the supposed validation that comes with institutional investors. They too, get it wrong sometimes. If multiple institutions change their view on a stock at the same time, you could see the share price drop fast. It's therefore worth looking at Nufarm's earnings history below. Of course, the future is what really matters.

ASX:NUF Earnings and Revenue Growth July 25th 2024

Institutional investors own over 50% of the company, so together than can probably strongly influence board decisions. Hedge funds don't have many shares in Nufarm. Our data shows that Orbis Investment Management Limited is the largest shareholder with 15% of shares outstanding. With 12% and 7.1% of the shares outstanding respectively, L1 Capital Pty. Limited and Host-Plus Pty. Limited are the second and third largest shareholders.

We also observed that the top 6 shareholders account for more than half of the share register, with a few smaller shareholders to balance the interests of the larger ones to a certain extent.

While it makes sense to study institutional ownership data for a company, it also makes sense to study analyst sentiments to know which way the wind is blowing. There are a reasonable number of analysts covering the stock, so it might be useful to find out their aggregate view on the future.

Insider Ownership Of Nufarm

While the precise definition of an insider can be subjective, almost everyone considers board members to be insiders. Company management run the business, but the CEO will answer to the board, even if he or she is a member of it.

Insider ownership is positive when it signals leadership are thinking like the true owners of the company. However, high insider ownership can also give immense power to a small group within the company. This can be negative in some circumstances.

Our information suggests that Nufarm Limited insiders own under 1% of the company. Keep in mind that it's a big company, and the insiders own AU$8.8m worth of shares. The absolute value might be more important than the proportional share. Arguably, recent buying and selling is just as important to consider. You can click here to see if insiders have been buying or selling.

General Public Ownership

The general public-- including retail investors -- own 17% stake in the company, and hence can't easily be ignored. While this size of ownership may not be enough to sway a policy decision in their favour, they can still make a collective impact on company policies.

Next Steps:

It's always worth thinking about the different groups who own shares in a company. But to understand Nufarm better, we need to consider many other factors. Take risks for example - Nufarm has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.

Ultimately the future is most important. You can access this free report on analyst forecasts for the company.

NB: Figures in this article are calculated using data from the last twelve months, which refer to the 12-month period ending on the last date of the month the financial statement is dated. This may not be consistent with full year annual report figures.

Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.

Discover if Nufarm might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.