Will Northern Star Resources’ (ASX:NST) Steady Guidance Signal Enduring Cost Control Confidence?

• Northern Star Resources Limited recently released its operating results for the September 2025 quarter, reporting sales of 381,000 ounces of gold at an all-in sustaining cost of A$2,522 per ounce, and reaffirmed its fiscal year 2026 guidance for total gold sold and costs.
• Despite mixed quarterly production performance, management’s decision to uphold full-year targets highlights ongoing confidence in operational stability and cost control initiatives.
• We’ll explore how the reaffirmed full-year gold production guidance shapes Northern Star’s investment narrative and future project outlook.

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Northern Star Resources Investment Narrative Recap

At its core, holding Northern Star Resources stock is about confidence in the company’s ability to deliver consistent gold production while maintaining cost discipline during periods of sector-wide inflation. The latest quarterly results, with reaffirmed full-year guidance despite mixed production, do not materially impact the immediate focus: sustaining output at key assets and managing cost pressures, while the main risk continues to be successful execution and integration of large-scale expansion projects.

Among recent announcements, the confirmation of fiscal year 2026 production and cost guidance stands out as most relevant. This assurance, following a quarter with both operational positives and challenges, reinforces the company’s emphasis on stability and operational reliability, important for supporting longer-term objectives such as the Fimiston mill expansion and the Hemi project ramp-up.

Yet, in contrast to steady guidance, investors should be aware of ongoing uncertainties tied to capital project execution and...

Read the full narrative on Northern Star Resources (it's free!)

Northern Star Resources is forecast to achieve A$9.1 billion in revenue and A$2.0 billion in earnings by 2028. This outlook assumes annual revenue growth of 12.3% and a rise in earnings of A$0.7 billion from current earnings of A$1.3 billion.

Uncover how Northern Star Resources' forecasts yield a A$25.11 fair value, a 4% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Thirteen estimates from the Simply Wall St Community indicate fair values between A$13.56 and A$46.34 per share. While opinions are diverse, the reaffirmed 2026 production outlook underscores how closely near-term guidance can shape expectations for Northern Star’s future performance. Explore these differing viewpoints to see how your outlook compares.

Explore 13 other fair value estimates on Northern Star Resources - why the stock might be worth 44% less than the current price!

Build Your Own Northern Star Resources Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Northern Star Resources research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Northern Star Resources research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Northern Star Resources' overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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