Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. We can see that Lucapa Diamond Company Limited (ASX:LOM) does use debt in its business. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?
When Is Debt A Problem?
Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.
Check out our latest analysis for Lucapa Diamond
What Is Lucapa Diamond's Debt?
As you can see below, Lucapa Diamond had US$21.9m of debt, at December 2020, which is about the same as the year before. You can click the chart for greater detail. However, it does have US$4.14m in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about US$17.8m.
A Look At Lucapa Diamond's Liabilities
The latest balance sheet data shows that Lucapa Diamond had liabilities of US$8.98m due within a year, and liabilities of US$20.8m falling due after that. On the other hand, it had cash of US$4.14m and US$1.01m worth of receivables due within a year. So it has liabilities totalling US$24.6m more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
This is a mountain of leverage relative to its market capitalization of US$38.8m. Should its lenders demand that it shore up the balance sheet, shareholders would likely face severe dilution. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is Lucapa Diamond's earnings that will influence how the balance sheet holds up in the future. So when considering debt, it's definitely worth looking at the earnings trend. Click here for an interactive snapshot.
In the last year Lucapa Diamond had a loss before interest and tax, and actually shrunk its revenue by 70%, to US$4.6m. That makes us nervous, to say the least.
Caveat Emptor
While Lucapa Diamond's falling revenue is about as heartwarming as a wet blanket, arguably its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) loss is even less appealing. Its EBIT loss was a whopping US$4.2m. When we look at that and recall the liabilities on its balance sheet, relative to cash, it seems unwise to us for the company to have any debt. Quite frankly we think the balance sheet is far from match-fit, although it could be improved with time. Another cause for caution is that is bled US$7.6m in negative free cash flow over the last twelve months. So suffice it to say we consider the stock very risky. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. To that end, you should learn about the 6 warning signs we've spotted with Lucapa Diamond (including 3 which are significant) .
If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.
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About ASX:LOM
Lucapa Diamond
Engages in the exploration, evaluation, mining, and development of diamond projects in Angola, Lesotho, Botswana, and Australia.
Flawless balance sheet and slightly overvalued.