Over the last month the Lithium Australia NL (ASX:LIT) has been much stronger than before, rebounding by 47%. But that is small recompense for the exasperating returns over three years. In that time, the share price dropped 61%. Some might say the recent bounce is to be expected after such a bad drop. While many would remain nervous, there could be further gains if the business can put its best foot forward.
Lithium Australia recorded just AU$352,861 in revenue over the last twelve months, which isn’t really enough for us to consider it to have a proven product. This state of affairs suggests that venture capitalists won’t provide funds on attractive terms. As a result, we think it’s unlikely shareholders are paying much attention to current revenue, but rather speculating on growth in the years to come. It seems likely some shareholders believe that Lithium Australia will find or develop a valuable new mine before too long.
Companies that lack both meaningful revenue and profits are usually considered high risk. There is almost always a chance they will need to raise more capital, and their progress – and share price – will dictate how dilutive that is to current holders. While some companies like this go on to deliver on their plan, making good money for shareholders, many end in painful losses and eventual de-listing. Some Lithium Australia investors have already had a taste of the bitterness stocks like this can leave in the mouth.
Lithium Australia had cash in excess of all liabilities of just AU$1.2m when it last reported (June 2019). So if it has not already moved to replenish reserves, we think the near-term chances of a capital raising event are pretty high. That probably explains why the share price is down 27% per year, over 3 years . You can click on the image below to see (in greater detail) how Lithium Australia’s cash levels have changed over time. You can click on the image below to see (in greater detail) how Lithium Australia’s cash levels have changed over time.
In reality it’s hard to have much certainty when valuing a business that has neither revenue or profit. Would it bother you if insiders were selling the stock? It would bother me, that’s for sure. It costs nothing but a moment of your time to see if we are picking up on any insider selling.
A Different Perspective
Investors in Lithium Australia had a tough year, with a total loss of 30%, against a market gain of about 24%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Longer term investors wouldn’t be so upset, since they would have made 8.1%, each year, over five years. It could be that the recent sell-off is an opportunity, so it may be worth checking the fundamental data for signs of a long term growth trend. You might want to assess this data-rich visualization of its earnings, revenue and cash flow.
But note: Lithium Australia may not be the best stock to buy. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with past earnings growth (and further growth forecast).
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on AU exchanges.
If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at firstname.lastname@example.org. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned.
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